Abulsme.com: November 2012

Electoral College: Nov 10 18:00 UTC – Florida finally called – For Obama – 56 of 56!

Just before 18:00 UTC today, Florida was finally “called” for Obama. Absent any faithless electors, this makes the final electoral college results Obama 332, Romney 206.

As those of you following my electoral college tracking this year know, not only was that the final state of my “Current” line on election day, but it is also by far the most common location of the race in the daily updates covering the whole year. As I’d said quite a few times, 332-206 just seemed to be where this race “wanted” to be. Sometimes events would move the polls slightly further in Obama’s direction, sometimes slightly further in Romney’s direction, but 332-206 seemed to attract the race like a magnet, and things would revert back to this state. When things “reverted to the mean” this is where they went.

Also of course, looking at the daily updates going back to January, Romney was NEVER ahead in this electoral college analysis… or any other electoral college analysis. Aside from a few days in October where Romney was threatening to take the lead (but never did) the question was never if Obama would win, but rather by how much. But yet reports are that the Romney campaign, and Romney himself, were shocked by the fact that they lost. They really truly did not believe the overwhelming consensus from the pollsters.

I guess to some degree to run a national campaign like this you HAVE to make yourself think you are winning, but still…

One final point. There are quite a few more complicated models out there doing electoral college analysis. They provide potentially more detail and more kinds of insight than mine, but part of my point in doing this exercise is that even a very simple “last five poll” average can get you very good results. The marginal value from added complexity doesn’t really seem to get you that much more. This isn’t to say that there isn’t value in that complexity. There is. And if I had more time, I’d certainly be tempted to make a more complex method of analysis myself.

But the simple average still got 56 out of 56 right. (That would be the 50 states plus DC, plus the congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska.)

That ain’t bad.

Note added Nov 11 00:25 UTC: I have some final clean up to do on it yet, but the archival wiki page with all the information from this general election season is here. The earlier wiki archiving the primary season is here.

Edit Nov 11 00:34 to change some awkward wording.

@abulsme tweets from 2012-11-09 (UTC)

RT @BuzzFeedAndrew: RT @rickklein: John McCain (2008) beating Mitt Romney (2012) by more than 2 million votes, 59.9 million – 57.5 million 15:12:27
Reading – Please Proceed, Republicans (Josh Marshall) http://t.co/aqbaXZRK 15:19:34
RT @ThoughtnDesign: @abulsme Congrats on your electoral college model this cycle!!!! Momentum, shmomentum, ehh? 15:20:19
.@ThoughtnDesign Thanks! Still waiting on the official call in FL to see if I’m 55/55 or 54/55, but looks like O. CNN just slow calling. in reply to ThoughtnDesign 15:25:43
RT @ThoughtnDesign: @abulsme The punditry is funny. Are u telling me that #Romney lost a race that he was never ahead in? Why aren’t we … 15:26:02
.@ThoughtnDesign Not big enuf to be called landslide. But solid EC win. Pop not bad either. R’s falling over themselves funny though. in reply to ThoughtnDesign 15:27:36
RT @rickklein: And Barack Obama (2008) beating Barack Obama (2012) by 9 million votes, 69.5 million – 60.2 million 15:29:29
Reading – Mitt Romney’s Campaign Really Believed He Was Going to Win, Right Up Until He Lost (Paul Constant) http://t.co/6FoR3uT1 15:32:35
WTF, Romney should have known it was a long shot at best -> Reading – Adviser: Romney “shellshocked” by loss (CBSNews) http://t.co/Bkf01BDq 15:38:18
Just completed a 3.32 km walk – Late lunch walk. First in a long time. . http://t.co/LnvPr5w7 #RunKeeper 22:00:28

@abulsme tweets from 2012-11-08 (UTC)

RT @natsecHeather: Son to me this am: “the next time we vote for President, I’ll be TWELVE!” @HonestToddler I almost drove off road. 14:22:15
.@natsecHeather My son will be seven in 2016. Blows my mind! in reply to natsecHeather 14:23:51
Reading – More best iPhone 5 cases (Brian Lam) http://t.co/AQ8Ylvwm 14:36:15
RT @alanbeattie: In response to Boehner POTUS should appear on TV with big platinum coin in one hand & copy of US Constitution in th … 14:38:41
Reading – How the Election Reset the Fiscal Cliff Debate (Jonathan Cohn) http://t.co/E0Yg5itI 14:43:38
Reading – Fla. election results still hanging, again (UPI) http://t.co/CdoJt45a 15:29:26
RT @BuzzFeedAndrew: And the election ends. Romney campaign concedes Florida, @MiamiHerald reports http://t.co/PdE0HyoY h/t @HuffPostPol 20:24:17

@abulsme tweets from 2012-11-07 (UTC)

[Abulpost] Electoral College: 00:00 – Election Night Begins!: Romney Obama Romney Best Case 310 228 Cur… http://t.co/uGwO5bLM 00:01:29
And we are off! 00:01:33
[Abulpost] Electoral College: 00:15 – VT, CT Called – No Surprises: Romney Obama Romney Best Case 310 2… http://t.co/qq0D3DpM 00:21:53
RT @jennsteele: @abulsme I’m watching the election via you as I swear at Excel :) 00:32:44
@jennsteele I will generally be about 15-20 minutes behind the network on called states cause of how I do it. But thanks! in reply to jennsteele 00:33:36
RT @jennsteele: @abulsme All the better – it gives me time to pretend to work between updates :) 00:43:28
[Abulpost] Electoral College: 00:30 – Indiana for Romney, as expected: \ Romney Obama Romney Best Case … http://t.co/2RTNlQsD 00:43:36
.@jennsteele Extremely frustrated by my slow website though. Actions that should take seconds taking minutes… Bleh! in reply to jennsteele 00:44:12
RT @jennsteele: @abulsme Ugh. I’ve had a rough technology day with Excel. If you know an Excel rain dance, let me know. 00:53:39
.@jennsteele Nope, sorry. :-) in reply to jennsteele 00:53:54
[Abulpost] Electoral College: 00:45 – WV and SC go as expected: Romney Obama Romney Best Case 310 228 C… http://t.co/9DPInUvr 01:03:47
RT @jennsteele: @abulsme NBC appears to be calling states more aggressively. Interesting. 01:28:32
.@jennsteele Cool. Working on the through 01:15 update right now. A lite behind. :-) in reply to jennsteele 01:29:29
[Abulpost] Electoral College: 01:15 – Lots of states, All expected: Romney Obama Romney Best Case 310 2… http://t.co/METwHMZY 01:38:38
RT @jennsteele: @abulsme I really value the “all expected” calls you make. They tell me whether to panic yet :) 01:48:26
.@jennsteele More “as expected” states coming in the update I am working in now. :-) in reply to jennsteele 01:48:59
[Abulpost] Electoral College: 01:45 – Three more Romney states, all expected: Romney Obama Romney Best … http://t.co/Cr0KN34g 01:59:32
First close state called! Michigan called for Obama. It will be in my next update… 02:02:58
Michigan was the tipping point state in my last update of my analysis. This is not good for Romney. :-) 02:04:36
RT @ChrisAWheeler: @abulsme Keep me updated! You’re better than CNN. 02:05:46
.@ChrisAWheeler Heh. Thanks! :-) in reply to ChrisAWheeler 02:06:03
Updates coming, but CNN just called PA. Romney has to sweep ALL the other close states to win. This is almost over. 02:42:51
[Abulpost] Electoral College: 02:15 – First Close State Called! Michigan Goes Blue: Romney Obama Romney… http://t.co/5lWgbSGC 02:47:02
Updates coming as fast as I can, but CNN just called NH for Obama. I believe this means Romney’s best case is now a 269-269 tie. 03:06:28
I lied. His best case is a 270 to 268 win. #math. Updates coming as fast as I can! 03:10:52
[Abulpost] Electoral College: 02:45 – Pennsylvania goes Blue, Romney’s paths drying up: Romney Obama Ro… http://t.co/VdliY4TH 03:13:37
RT @BYUfan: I second that! RT @ChrisAWheeler @abulsme Keep me updated! You’re better than CNN. 03:13:58
.@BYUfan Aw shucks…. in reply to BYUfan 03:14:11
[Abulpost] Electoral College: 03:15 – New Hampshire to Obama, Romney’s paths almost gone: Romney Obama … http://t.co/MKlt1slm 03:36:07
No states called in awhile. So no 3:30 or 3:45 updates. Bunch of states where the outcome is unlike to surprise probably right after 04:00. 03:47:05
Blog posts catching up soon, but Iowa just went blue. Romney’s best case is now to lose, even if he wins all the remaining close states. 04:11:19
With Iowa, Obama wins reelection. Even if Romney wins all the rest of the close states. We are done! 04:12:09
[Abulpost] Electoral College: 04:00 – Some Expected States: Romney Obama Romney Best Case 270 268 Curre… http://t.co/RbRXN8pW 04:15:15
RT @BYUfan: That was quick! RT @abulsme: With Iowa, Obama wins reelection. Even if Romney wins all the rest of the close states. We are … 04:17:48
RT @natsecHeather: @abulsme I know I’m not supposed to disenfranchise you West Coasters, but it’s over. FOX just called OH for Obama. 04:17:52
.@natsecHeather OH didn’t matter, by the end it was clearly Obama. I called the election about 10 minutes ago when Iowa was called. in reply to natsecHeather 04:18:43
[Abulpost] Electoral College: 04:15 – Romney’s Paths Gone, Obama Wins!: Romney Obama Romney Best Case 2… http://t.co/NPbW5Mfl 04:49:04
[Abulpost] Electoral College: 04:30 – Expected States push Obama over 270: Romney Obama Romney Best Cas… http://t.co/Ykyouf1z 05:10:55
[Abulpost] Electoral College: 05:00 – Nevada to Obama too: Romney Obama Romney Best Case 258 280 Curren… http://t.co/z3H6xoYw 05:34:49
[Abulpost] Electoral College: 05:30 – Colorado and Maine 2nd for Obama too: Romney Obama Romney Best Ca… http://t.co/V0oMSHCN 05:51:04
[Abulpost] Electoral College: 05:45 – Virginia also for Obama: Romney Obama Romney Best Case 235 303 Cu… http://t.co/bPIqMxaE 06:08:24
[Abulpost] Electoral College: 06:00 – Nebraska’s remaining congressional districts to Romney: Romney Oba… http://t.co/OTftXBiJ 06:34:46
[Abulpost] Electoral College: 06:15 вЂ“ Alaska for Romney, Only Florida Left: Romney Obama Romney Best … http://t.co/x8r949t3 09:59:35
Reading – Looking To Monetize Its Maps, Waze Launches A Location-Aware Mobile Ad Platform (Rip Empson) http://t.co/POtYXuIE 16:11:50
RT @kylenw: Just bought a Kindle Paperwhite with Prime, and its estimated delivery date is December 24th. Just in case anyone’s thinking … 16:13:32
Reading – Is Nate Silver Incentive Compatible? (Henry Farrell) http://t.co/GucP8OBd 16:18:22
RT @GarrettQuinn: Johnson now has the second highest vote total in Libertarian Party history, second only to Ed Clark in 1980 16:20:08
Reading – Introducing Waze Ads (Edon, Waze) http://t.co/81tGZX78 16:21:44
RT @MysteryPollster: +100 вЂњ@BrendanNyhan: Or @simonjackman! RT @dylanmatt In all the @fivethirtyeight triumphalism don’t forget @drewlin … 16:28:40
Reading – On the WA Gov race (Darryl, HorsesAss) http://t.co/2V1VpjRa 16:30:15
RT @mattyglesias: Citizens United seems to have been a devious plot to transfer money from conservative billionaires to conservative pol … 16:33:09
Reading – “Soon America Is Going to Suck for All of Us” (Paul Constant) http://t.co/EIIl1tgl 16:35:42
RT @tinyrevolution: Nate Silver being right brings up the very real and terrifying possibility that climate scientists are too 16:37:57
Reading – The Republican Minority Has Arrived (Andrew Sullivan) http://t.co/g9tubFKP 16:40:15
RT @politicalwire: How do you unskew actual votes? 16:40:37
Reading – The Masters of the Universe Lose (Charles Mudede) http://t.co/POTmLWeH 16:42:02
Reading – The Silver Fox (Matthew Yglesias) http://t.co/UyPuYXsB 16:51:43
RT @davidfrum: This is not a reaffirmation of the status quo. This is a Republican thumping. 17:18:21
Consensus seems to be CNN was the slowest calling states last night and I should have watched basically any other channel. :-/ 17:20:32
I had been watching MSNBC prior to polls closing. Switched to CNN cause I had easy audio option for that in the car for when I had to go. 17:22:03
Turns out the CNN audio feed failed me and I used the Slingbox, so could have watched anything. 17:23:24
Of course, by the time I left for airport everything but Florida had been called anyway. Hey wait, have the other networks called FL? :-) 17:24:43
RT @davidfrum: RT @AdamSerwer: Republicans should feel betrayed by conservative media that told them what they wanted to hear stead of w … 17:26:00
RT @Toure: The GOP cannot lose Latinos in huge numbers and lose big among women and also win national elections. 17:28:07
RT @davidfrum: RT @jpodhoretz: @davidfrum @AdamSerwer Would that have made a difference? / Truth always better than lies, and there were … 17:28:36
RT @BuzzFeed: Big night for math. #election2012 17:29:56
RT @BuzzFeedAndrew: 2008: election called at 11pm, 2012: election called at 11:15pm. 18:07:23
RT @McCainBlogette: Heartbroken. My party has to evolve or it’s going to die. 18:07:55
RT @chrislhayes: NBC is now projecting @fivethirtyeight as the President of the United States. 18:09:24
RT @BuzzFeedAndrew: RT @jpodhoretz Congratulations, guys. Fun sparring w/you. You were right and I was wrong. Thought polls were oversam … 18:13:42
RT @dccommonsense: Well as I’ve been saying for more than a year, Romney was the John Kerry,Walter Mondale,Bob Dole person this year
#El … 18:20:02
RT @ezraklein: The nature of tonight’s GOP loss — demographics turning decisively against them — seems certain to trigger n internal war 18:20:13
Reading – Rove Goes Rogue (Andrew Sullivan) http://t.co/Wye08Xbq 19:32:45
Reading – The Accuracy of the Final National Polls (John Sides) http://t.co/vwG0b1oz 19:35:04
Reading – xkcd: Math (Randall Monroe) http://t.co/nVTUcL4J 21:52:05
RT @brendanloy: .@ivette0915 The vast majority of the righties I follow accept the result. They just don’t like it/can’t fathom it. This … 22:10:56
Reading – Why I Was Wrong (Dick Morris) http://t.co/fzOqe7pC 22:20:54
RT @owillis: today we are at peak schadenfreude. 22:21:46
Reading – Silver Medal: Obama’s big win does not mean Nate Silver is a towering electoral genius. (Daniel Engber) http://t.co/Qvw1rBc4 22:26:11

Electoral College: 06:15 вЂ“ Alaska for Romney, Only Florida Left

	Romney	Obama
Romney Best Case	235	303
Current Status	206	332
Obama Best Case	206	332

I needed to pause to take my wife to the airport, so I couldn’t make this update earlier, but shortly after 06:00 UTC, Alaska was called for Romney.

This means so far the five poll average has called 54/54 contests. Only Florida is left. Even if it ends up missing on Florida, that is pretty good… It is better than it did four years ago.

If I do this again in four years, I may end up doing some things differently based on things I’ve learned this time around, but for the most part I’d say this exercise has been a success. And lots of fun, if somewhat exhausting in the last month.

I have no idea if Florida will end up being called in the next few hours, or if it will end up going almost 15 days like Missouri did in 2008.

Given that, I think it is time to call it a night. I’ll do another update sometime after Florida is called, although it may not be immediate given I’ll now start spending time on non-election things as well. :-)

Thanks again for following my coverage this year. It has been a blast!

Electoral College: 06:00 – Nebraska’s remaining congressional districts to Romney

	Romney	Obama
Romney Best Case	235	303
Current Status	206	332
Obama Best Case	206	332

The two remaining Nebraska congressional districts were called for Romney shortly before 06:00 UTC.

As of then, that left Alaska and Florida outstanding, but only Florida was ever really in question.

And this wraps up the live coverage of Election 2012 from Abulsme.com. I have to take my wife to the airport now.

Alaska was actually called for Romney already, and I’ll include that in a 6:15 update when I get back.

And then we wait for Florida to tell us if we do indeed end up at the magical 332-206, or if we end up at 303 to 235 instead.

I’ll make a final update once the results in Florida are known.

And then a really final update once the electoral college votes in December, just in case there are any faithless electors.

But for now, thanks for joining Abulsme.com for the election coverage all year long.

Sam out.

Electoral College: 05:45 – Virginia also for Obama

	Romney	Obama
Romney Best Case	235	303
Current Status	206	332
Obama Best Case	205	333

The five poll average’s streak continues.

Electoral College: 05:30 – Colorado and Maine 2nd for Obama too

	Romney	Obama
Romney Best Case	248	290
Current Status	206	332
Obama Best Case	205	333

Colorado and Maine’s 2nd also go to Obama. Still haven’t missed one.

Electoral College: 05:00 – Nevada to Obama too

	Romney	Obama
Romney Best Case	258	280
Current Status	206	332
Obama Best Case	205	333

At 04:49 UTC CNN called Nevada for Obama. The five poll average still hasn’t missed, but there are still a few states left.

Electoral College: 04:30 – Expected States push Obama over 270

	Romney	Obama
Romney Best Case	264	274
Current Status	206	332
Obama Best Case	205	333

Between 04:15 and 04:30 UTC, three more states were called. Missouri for Romney, and Oregon and Ohio for Obama. All three of these were fully expected, but Ohio put Obama over 270.

CNN waited until they called Ohio at 04:18 UTC to call the election, even though based on the polls by the time we got to election day, Ohio wasn’t even close. Once Iowa was called 9 minutes earlier, Romney had no more ways to win.

At this point, the only question is the margin of Obama’s victory.

As of this update, the five poll average hasn’t missed a state yet. Four states and two congressional districts to go.

(Of the close ones… there is also Alaska and Nebraska’s 3rd, but those will certainly go to Romney.)

Edit 2012 Nov 7 05:13 to add that last parenthetical note.

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Electoral College: Nov 10 18:00 UTC – Florida finally called – For Obama – 56 of 56!

@abulsme tweets from 2012-11-09 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2012-11-08 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2012-11-07 (UTC)

Electoral College: 06:15 вЂ“ Alaska for Romney, Only Florida Left

Electoral College: 06:00 – Nebraska’s remaining congressional districts to Romney

Electoral College: 05:45 – Virginia also for Obama

Electoral College: 05:30 – Colorado and Maine 2nd for Obama too

Electoral College: 05:00 – Nevada to Obama too

Electoral College: 04:30 – Expected States push Obama over 270

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