Abulsme.com: Wednesday, November 7th, 2012

Electoral College: 02:15 – First Close State Called! Michigan Goes Blue

	Romney	Obama
Romney Best Case	294	244
Current Status	206	332
Obama Best Case	190	348

No states were called between 01:45 UTC and 02:00 UTC, but a ton were called between 02:00 UTC and 02:15 UTC:

Romney: KS, LA, NE-All, NE-1, ND, SD, TX, WY, MS
Obama: MI, NY, NJ

All of these were no brainer expected states, except for Michigan. Michigan is the first state of the night to be called where the margin was less than 5% in the polls, so winning this state made a difference between the “best cases” that I present. Obama was ahead here by 4.5%, so a win here was predicted, but it was a close state and one that Romney really needed.

As of the final update I made on election day, Michigan was the tipping point state. That means Romney had to win all the states he was doing better in than Michigan PLUS Michigan in order to win. He just lost Michigan, which means he now needs a state he was further behind in that Michigan in order to win.

This is very bad news to Romney. His path to victory is now not quite impossible, but very close. Let’s look:

With all the states he has already won, plus the uncalled states where Romney was ahead by more than 5%, he had 190 electoral votes. Then the areas he was ahead in:

Nebraska 2nd (1): 3.8% Romney lead
North Carolina (15): 1.4% Romney lead

That gets Romney to 206. He needs 63 more electoral votes. Looking at the remaining states that haven’t yet been called:

Iowa (6): 2.0% Obama lead
Florida (29): 2.3% Obama lead
Colorado (9): 2.4% Obama lead
New Hampshire (4): 2.8% Obama lead
Maine 2nd (1): 2.8% Obama lead
Virginia (13): 3.6% Obama lead
Pennsylvania (20): 4.8% Obama lead
Nevada (6): 4.8% Obama lead

If Romney wins all of those through Pennsylvania, it gets him to 288 electoral votes, which wins him the Presidency. If he doesn’t win Pennsylvania to win, he needs every other one of those states, including Nevada, which would get him to 274. If he does win Pennsylvania, then he could afford to lose Virginia, New Hampshire and Maine’s 2nd (and Nevada).

But that is a very tall order! And there will be another update coming soon…

Electoral College: 01:45 – Three more Romney states, all expected

	Romney	Obama
Romney Best Case	310	228
Current Status	206	332
Obama Best Case	190	348

There were no new calls between 01:15 UTC and 01:30 UTC.

Between 01:30 UTC and 01:45 UTC, Arkansas, Tennessee and Alabama were all called for Romney… as expected.

At some point they will need to start calling some of the close states, or it will be a really long night. :-)

Electoral College: 01:15 – Lots of states, All expected

	Romney	Obama
Romney Best Case	310	228
Current Status	206	332
Obama Best Case	190	348

There were no states called between 00:45 UTC and 01:00 UTC so there was no 01:00 update.

But there were tons of states called between 01:00 and 01:15 though.

Obama: CT, DE, DC, IL, MD, MA, ME-All, ME-1, RI
Romney: OK, GA

I also corrected the light blue line in the chart, which I’d neglected to decrement when Romney won South Carolina. That line represents the states where Romney was ahead by more than 5%, but less than 10%.

The three scenarios remain the same though, as no close states have been called. In 2008, since McCain’s best case was still to lose, I also tracked a “McCain SuperBest” case on election night, the case where he would have won all the states he was behind by less than 10% in. That was to keep it interesting in a race that wasn’t close. No need for that this time.

This time we wait for the states that are actually close.

Electoral College: 00:45 – WV and SC go as expected

	Romney	Obama
Romney Best Case	310	228
Current Status	206	332
Obama Best Case	190	348

Still no changes to the three scenarios. No close states called yet.

BTW, I am judging “called states” by CNN.

Electoral College: 00:30 – Indiana for Romney, as expected

	Romney	Obama
Romney Best Case	310	228
Current Status	206	332
Obama Best Case	190	348

The summary is the same. This won’t start changing until some of the close states start getting called.

Electoral College: 00:15 – VT, CT Called – No Surprises

	Romney	Obama
Romney Best Case	310	228
Current Status	206	332
Obama Best Case	190	348

No changes to the three scenarios I track, as the two state called both went exactly as expected. Vermont to Obama, Kentucky to Romney.

The fun is yet to come.

Electoral College: 00:00 – Election Night Begins!

	Romney	Obama
Romney Best Case	310	228
Current Status	206	332
Obama Best Case	190	348

As of a couple minutes ago, the first full states closed their polls. The above shows the stage that has been set by the polling. I’ll be posting updates periodically through the night as states are called. The updates will represent 15 minute intervals if I can maintain it, otherwise I may drop to 30 minutes. :-) This means, for example, that when the time hits 00:15 UTC, I’ll start working on an update with any states that were called between 00:00 UTC and 00:15 UTC. If no states have been called, I won’t post an update.

I will go as long as I can before I have to go to the airport. We’ll see if things are completely clear by then. I imagine they will be.

@abulsme tweets from 2012-11-06 (UTC)

Reading – The Mistake That Is the Libertarian Party (Randy Barnett) http://t.co/q6vXTEur 03:05:07
I gather there is another 3rd party presidential debate tonight. I think I’m just too tired for that… :-) 03:09:58
Reading – But What If Obama Loses the Popular Vote? (James Fallows) http://t.co/577OHXAX 03:16:13
Reading – A 1-point Sandy bounce? (Sam Wang) http://t.co/GpjePSNB 03:18:16
RT @rebliv: @abulsme “all the fucking polls” — you should write that poem 04:26:27
I was going to write a post tonight about issues important to me and my views on them to guide my ballot choices. Realized I am too tired. 04:56:27
Tie in Dixville Notch! How exciting! 05:09:54
RT @brianbeutler: PREDICTION: Obama will ward off debt limit crisis with dubious reading of Constitution and House will impeach him for it. 05:17:15
RT @PollsAndVotes: More data! Still inconclusive. RT @JamesPindell: Hart’s Location election results @BarackObama 23, @MittRomney 9, @G … 06:16:58
RT @parislemon: If the number of iPad mini demos I’ve given the past few days is any indication, this is going to be the best selling de … 07:58:17
Reading – And if the GOP Doesn’t Win (Cont.) [James Fallows] http://t.co/e7VwMmqT 08:18:37
Reading – Presidential prediction 2012 (Election Eve final) [Sam Wang] http://t.co/FqtBtMiN 08:22:28
Reading – Nov. 5: Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer Odds (Nate Silver) http://t.co/a10KfKJY 08:31:29
Reading – Poll Analysis: Penultimate stability (Darryl, HorsesAss) http://t.co/I4YxbdwL 08:34:35
Reading – Final Election Forecasting Update – 5 November 2012 (Kevin Drum) http://t.co/Bo9lzQsR 09:51:19
As I think though the last choice on my ballot > Rereading – Why I Refuse to Vote for Barack Obama (Conor Friedersdorf) http://t.co/h7tg68be 10:16:27
Saved Prez for last. More I looked at Johnson more I realized I disagreed on. But Friedersdorf’s argument won the day. One vote for Johnson. 10:23:30
Ballot all done now. I’ll take it to one of the official drop boxes after taking my son to preschool in the morning. But sleep first. 10:26:47
After that, one final round of poll checks, a final update to the website, then wait for the returns to start coming in… 10:27:22
RT @jonsevern: @abulsme so what is your final electoral count prediction? Who’s going to win this thing? 16:03:54
.@jonsevern You’ll just have to read my final post later today. :-) But probably safe bet nothing big will change from yesterday’s post. in reply to jonsevern 16:06:37
Ballot deposited in the official drop box a few seconds ago! #voted 17:33:55
RT @HuntsmanLiddy: MVP this election cycle: Nate Silver @fivethirtyeight 18:36:45
.@jonsevern Actually, looks like some interesting movement. Update before polls start closing in just under three hours. 20:16:37
Reading – Election Day’s Most Pressing Voting Irregularities: A Roundup (Perry Stein) http://t.co/dkBIOvqY 20:21:34
Final EC Update done. Polls added in 7 states. Florida, WisconsinвЂ¦ and OHIO change status. Blog post soon! http://t.co/kF2iz3uE 21:44:12
RT @BYUfan: @abulsme The return of 206-332. 21:49:20
.@BYUfan Indeed. Makes me smile. It is as if months and months of campaigning on both sides changed absolutely nothing… in reply to BYUfan 21:50:21
RT @jonsevern: @abulsme don’t tease me! 22:24:31
.@jonsevern Working on it now! in reply to jonsevern 22:24:45
[Abulpost] Electoral College: Final Update! Final surge for Obama!: This was supposed to be a day where… http://t.co/zKRoShyt 22:53:40
Polls have now closed in parts of Indiana and Kentucky! Here we go! 23:01:54

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Electoral College: 02:15 – First Close State Called! Michigan Goes Blue

Electoral College: 01:45 – Three more Romney states, all expected

Electoral College: 01:15 – Lots of states, All expected

Electoral College: 00:45 – WV and SC go as expected

Electoral College: 00:30 – Indiana for Romney, as expected

Electoral College: 00:15 – VT, CT Called – No Surprises

Electoral College: 00:00 – Election Night Begins!

@abulsme tweets from 2012-11-06 (UTC)

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