Electoral College: 02:45 – Pennsylvania goes Blue, Romney’s paths drying up

There were no states called between 02:15 UTC and 02:30 UTC, but one big update between 02:30 UTC and 02:45 UTC…

Pennsylvania goes for Obama. This makes Romney’s path to win from the remaining states very very difficult… close to impossible. Let’s look:

With the areas he is ahead by more than 5% in, Romney starts out at 190 electoral votes. Then we have the areas he is ahead in:

• Nebraska 2nd (1): 3.8% Romney lead
• North Carolina (15): 1.4% Romney lead

That gets Romney to 206 electoral votes. Then the remaining close states:

• Iowa (6): 2.0% Obama lead
• Florida (29): 2.3% Obama lead
• Colorado (9): 2.4% Obama lead
• New Hampshire (4): 2.8% Obama lead
• Maine 2nd (1): 2.8% Obama lead
• Virginia (13): 3.6% Obama lead
• Nevada (6): 4.8% Obama lead

If Romney wins ALL of those states, he gets to a 274 to 264 win over Obama. He has 5 electoral votes to spare. He can afford to lose New Hampshire and Maine’s 2nd, which would give him a 269-269 tie, which would probably result in a Romney/Biden administration. But he can’t afford to lose ANY of the other remaining states.

The tipping point is now Nevada. Obama was ahead by 4.8% in my five poll average in Nevada.

This is almost over. Romney sweeping all of those states is basically inconceivable.