- Reading – With SpaceX launch remains of James Doohan (Star Trek's Scotty) finally rest in peace, in space (Xeni Jardin) http://t.co/Ulg9iUcH #
- @UGAProsecutor In AR/KY/WV? Yes, Obama will have trouble in those states for sure. :-) Certain losses. He won't bother with them at all. #
- RT @ProgGrrl: Just. Wow. RT @kdawson: The eclipse from space. Bonus: Milky Way. http://t.co/935HkSN3 #
- Reading – Iowa GOP staffer resigns after Ron Paul takeover, fundraising woes (Emily Schultheus) http://t.co/IB5mgscx #
- .@UGAProsecutor Bush worst in 2004 79.6% in NH. Not quite 60%, but no comp = very low turnout, most don't bother. Protest votes overrep. #
- .@UGAProsecutor I mostly hear about how close it is, even though EV models (like mine: http://t.co/kF2iz3uE) show big O lead. #
- .@UGAProsecutor MSM is not pro either side, MSM is pro close exciting race… better for ratings & readership. One side way ahead = boring. #
- .@UGAProsecutor Still early of course. McCain was ahead by same EV margin this time four years ago and lost. Things change from May to Nov. #
- Reading – The New, Nasty Obama Campaign (Molly Ball) http://t.co/YO9O7oAt #
- Reading – TiVo Stream Delivers Recorded Shows to Your iPhone (Adam Dachis) http://t.co/zQkU7uSn #
- Reading – THX1136 (John Gruber) http://t.co/Bg5tvElP #
- Reading – A fake and a real view of the solar eclipse… FROM SPACE! (Phil Plait) http://t.co/JbrPNZd1 #
- Reading – Pirate Bay Simplifies Circumvention of ISP Blockades (Ernesto, TorrentFreak) http://t.co/tuhTIxxy #
- .@kdawson I already posted a tweet linking to an article about the composite origin of the pic. #
- .@kdawson It is still a pretty piece of art. @BadAstronomer article I linked has actual video from ISS too. http://t.co/JbrPNZd1 #
- .@UGAProsecutor Plenty of bias toward either side depending where in MSM you look. But only universal is bias toward drama away from boring. #
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Chart and map from the Abulsme.com 2012 Electoral College Prediction page. Both assume Obama vs Romney with no strong third party candidate. Both show polling as it currently exists. Things will change before election day. On the map red is Romney, blue is Obama, gold states are too close to call. Lines on the chart represent how many more electoral votes a candidate would have than is needed to tie under several different scenarios. Up is good for Obama, Down is good for Romney. One state changes status today, and once again it is a move in Romney’s direction.
Texas, which was never a swing state by any means, but which for awhile looked like it might be a state where Romney would at least need to watch his back and play a little defense just to be sure it didn’t surprise anyone by starting to get competitive, is now moving back into the “Strong Romney” camp as Romney’s lead in the five poll average jumps to 11%. This is a surprise to precisely no one. :-) Since Texas was never a swing state, this does not change the summary.
The general trend in Romney’s direction which I mentioned last time continues. But to make a big positive difference in his situation, Romney needs to be pulling current “Weak Obama” states into the swing state category. Strengthening his lead in states he is already nicely ahead in may feel good, but it doesn’t have an impact on the election. Unfortunately, I also have a correction to make regarding some older Wisconsin data. Thanks to a tip from Darryl at HorsesAss I found that I had mistakenly included a Washington State poll from February in the Wisconsin data (as well as in the Washington State data). The end result of this is that prior to today on the chart showing the history of the race so far, Wisconsin had been classified as a “Strong Obama” state from March 2nd to April 19th. With the erroneous poll backed out, Wisconsin should only have been “Strong Obama” from March 30th to April 19th. Starting with the chart in today’s post, the light red line indicating the number of excess electoral votes Romney would have if he won all swing states plus all of Obama’s weak states has been corrected to reflect this. Notes have also been placed in the March 2nd and March 30th updates to point out this correction. In either case, since May 17th I have classified Wisconsin as a “Lean Obama” swing state. Sorry for the error. It happens every once in awhile. :-)
Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page. When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination. If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated. The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”. These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur. Updates for three states today. First of all, Minnesota. The state convention was Friday and Saturday, but our source The Green Papers didn’t update their counts until a few hours after I did my daily scan of the delegate counts on Tuesday. I did my scan at 02:41 UTC yesterday, GP updated their counts sometime between then and 07:00 UTC. If I’d done my scan a little later as I sometimes do, this would have been its own update yesterday, but I didn’t, so it gets included in today’s update instead. Regardless, based on the results of the state conventions, the estimates for Minnesota change. Previously, the estimates were Paul 24, Santorum 8, Romney 2, Gingrich 2, TBD 4. Now, after the convention: Paul 32, Santorum 2, Gingrich 1, TBD 5. Notice Romney now has no delegates in Minnesota at all. Wow. (Although some of the TBDs may go that way when they eventually choose.) Net for this update in Minnesota: Paul +8, Gingrich -1, Romney -2, Santorum -6. This would be great for Paul except for the fact that he is so far behind that it doesn’t matter. But fun stuff in Minnesota none the less. Now we get to the two states that voted in primaries on Tuesday. Both are Romney shutouts. Arkansas: Romney gains 33 delegates. New totals: Romney 35, TBD 1 Kentucky: Romney gains 42 delegates. New totals: Romney 42, TBD 3 So, the total take for the day: Romney +73, Paul +8, Gingrich -1, Santorum -6 New overall totals by our count: Romney 1052, Santorum 255, Gingrich 143, Paul 125. Romney only needs 92 more delegates to win. That is 12.9% of the remaining delegates (down from 21.0% before today’s update). Texas is Tuesday and has more than enough delegates to push Romney over the edge. Tuesday should be it.
Chart and map from the Abulsme.com 2012 Electoral College Prediction page. Both assume Obama vs Romney with no strong third party candidate. Both show polling as it currently exists. Things will change before election day. On the map red is Romney, blue is Obama, gold states are too close to call. Lines on the chart represent how many more electoral votes a candidate would have than is needed to tie under several different scenarios. Up is good for Obama, Down is good for Romney. One state changes status today:
North Carolina moves from Obama up by 2.0% to Romney up by 0.6%. Either way, this is too close to call. North Carolina remains a swing state. Now, the latest poll actually has Romney ahead by 8%. This might be the start of a larger move toward Romney. Or maybe it is an outlier. It is too early to tell. For now, North Carolina is now a swing state that leans ever so slightly to Romney. Since North Carolina remains too close to call, this doesn’t change either candidate’s best case scenarios, which represent the range of reasonably possible results based on current state polling. The current line drops a nice ways in Romney’s direction though.
Glancing at the chart, it looks like there has been a nice move in Romney’s direction lately. Lets look at some specific numbers and compare to one month ago. One month ago was the first time that the state polls showed Romney’s best case being to lose. Things clearly look much better for him today. On April 18th, Romney’s best case showed him losing 260 to 278. Now he wins 276 to 262. He has moved 16 electoral votes (net) back into contention that a month ago seemed out of reach. On the current line, a month ago Obama was winning 328 to 210. Now he is only winning by 303 to 235. Over the last month Romney has pulled a full 25 electoral votes (net) over the line toward him. As for Obama’s best case… no change. The needle hasn’t moved at all. Obama hasn’t managed to pull more electoral votes into being competitive, nor have any moved out of reach. So the movement has definitely been in Romney’s direction. If he keeps it up, we’ll start to see the map looking much more competitive soon. By comparison, look at 4 years ago… the two best cases were much more symmetric around the tie line. The candidates were more evenly matched and the range of possibilities was not really favoring either candidate. It was clearly a wide open race four years ago. Having a lot more swing states helped. The “current” status looked very similar to today’s though… we had McCain 302, Obama 236. Reverse the parties, and we are almost exactly in the same place we are today. Of course McCain did not go on to win. One should look at Obama’s current lead in the model with that in mind. There is still a long time until November. Edit 2012 May 20 06:39 UTC – Fixed Map, SC was incorrectly colored as a swing state, it is now correctly colored as “Weak Romney”. |
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