Chart from the Abulsme.com 2012 Electoral College Prediction page. Lines represent how many more electoral votes a candidate has than is needed to tie under several different scenarios.
A couple of new polls move my “last five poll” average in Virginia from being “Just barely Romney” to being “Just barely Obama”. In reality, the state is too close to call. But if everybody won all the states they are ahead in at the moment, that would make the result Obama 328, Romney 210… a pretty solid Obama victory. To match his 2008 record though, Obama would need to also win all of the remaining “Lean Romney” states. And of course Romney still has possibilities to win by grabbing “Lean Obama” states back. It is a long year.
The map doesn’t change since I’m coloring all too close to call states purple, but here it is again anyway:
Map from the Abulsme.com 2012 Electoral College Prediction page.
Edit 2012 Feb 16 19:48 UTC to correct typo.
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