This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon

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@abulsme Updates from 2012-01-15 (UTC)

Heading to Luca’s House in the Snow

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2012 Republican Delegate Count: Retroactively Adding the Superdelegates

OK, so I don’t like to make retroactive changes to the graphs, and in most cases even if there is an after the fact correction I will make the correction on the day I find out about it, with the graphs representing the best data available at the dates listed. However, I will make an exception here because it is early, and I’m incorporating data I probably should have had from the beginning.

Namely, the source I have been using, The Green Papers, gives a tally of the delegates determined by primaries and caucuses (including projected eventual results of long caucus processes like Iowa’s) but at least for the moment is NOT looking at the “Automatic Delegates”, what were commonly known in the 2008 cycle as “SuperDelegates”. These are party officials and the like who come to the convention by nature of their position and are not bound by any rules or commitments or promises or whatever and can vote for whoever they like. On the Republican side this time there are 132 of these sorts of delegates. Democratic Convention Watch is tracking these people closely for when they make a public statement indicating which candidate they support.

Based on their information, we started the year with a superdelegate count of Romney 12, Perry 3, Santorum 1. On January 3rd Perry lost 1 . On January 9th, Perry gained 1 back. On January 10th, Romney gained 1. This leaves us at Romney 13, Perry 3, Santorum 1 today. I am now folding this information in on top of the delegates from Iowa and New Hampshire as reported by The Green Papers. Going forward, I will include both sources of information as I update these charts. For the record, I am assuming the changes I just listed happened at 12 UTC, since I didn’t actually check the page on those days.

This does leave us with a picture that looks even more favorable toward Mitt Romney, as his lead in these superdelegates is even more substantial than his lead in the rest of the delegates. At this point Romney only has to get 50.1% of remaining delegates, as opposed to his closest competitor at this time (Ron Paul) who needs to get a full 50.9% to win. These are still close to 50%, as we have just started, but in this view Romney is much closer to dropping below 50% than his rivals, and with Superdelegates plus New Hampshire, he is the only candidate heading downward (toward the nomination) rather than upward (away from it).

By the way, this makes the total projected delegate count so far based on these two sources:

  • Romney 26
  • Paul 9
  • Santorum 7
  • Perry 6
  • Gingrich 4
  • Huntsman 2

@abulsme Updates from 2012-01-14 (UTC)

  • Reading – DNS provision pulled from SOPA, victory for opponents (Greg Sandoval) http://t.co/ltjK7BfJ #
  • Reading – Don't Be Fooled: Leahy Is NOT Removing DNS Blocking Provisions, Merely Delaying Them (Mike Masnick) http://t.co/4pnFWLyY #
  • Reading – Judge denies lawsuit, Rick Perry, others remain off Virginia Republican primary ballot (Scott Wise) http://t.co/jqBy5P3a #
  • Reading – Should Vanity Fair Be a Spelling Vigilante? (Juli Weiner) http://t.co/2rFX5f6G #
  • Reading – A Clearer Picture (Cliff Mass) http://t.co/fXjVSNWf #
  • Reading – Evangelical Elites Back Santorum (Andrew Sullivan) http://t.co/6MeMyk2i #
  • Reading – Are Americans Assassinating Iranian Scientists? (Kevin Drum) http://t.co/OigErtTL #
  • Reading – Obama Administration Comes Out Against SOPA, PIPA
    (Carl Franzen) http://t.co/s1yuEsbr #
  • RT @fivethirtyeight: I'm not buying the CW that evangelical endorsement of Santorum is too little, too late. SC still very fluid. #
  • Reading – U.S. Warns Israel Against Iran Strike (Entous, Barnes & Solomon) http://t.co/QqpVh9GG #

Alex and Aunt Cynthia

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@abulsme Updates from 2012-01-13 (UTC)

Mr. Daisey and the Apple Factory

Yesterday This American Life came up in my random shuffle of music and podcasts. TAL is often very good, but this week’s episode was particularly captivating and a little disturbing. It is based on the stage show “The Agony and the Ecstasy of Steve Jobs“. Anyway, worth a listen:

This American Life #454:
MR. DAISEY AND THE APPLE FACTORY
Originally aired 01.06.2012

Mike Daisey was a self-described “worshipper in the cult of Mac.” Then he saw some photos from a new iPhone, taken by workers at the factory where it was made. Mike wondered: Who makes all my crap? He traveled to China to find out.

And since TAM gives a nice easy way to embed, you can play directly from here too:

@abulsme Updates from 2012-01-12 (UTC)

@abulsme Updates from 2012-01-11 (UTC)