This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon

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2012 Republican Delegate Count: Perry Out

So, this morning Rick Perry announced that he was out. As such our source at DCW put the 3 superdelegates who had endorsed him back into the pile of available delegates. As of today’s update, our source at The Green Papers hasn’t yet reallocated the 3 delegates they estimated that he would eventually get via the process in Iowa. The Iowa process is complex, so it is unclear the best way to reallocate those projected delegates. The real answer of course is that no delegates have actually been allocated in Iowa yet, but Green Papers tried to estimate as well as possible what will eventually come out of that process. As they change their estimate (if they change their estimate), we’ll change the values here too.

Bottom line though, like just about everything else lately, the result of all this is “Good News for Mitt Romney”. His lead in the delegate race continues to mount. The other non-Romney, non-Perry candidates are actually helped slightly by this (because at least in theory these three superdelegates are now up for grabs again) but they still pretty far back.

Morning Snow Glow

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@abulsme Updates from 2012-01-18 (UTC)

Sam and Cynthia 2012

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Alex and Cynthia Walk Roscoe

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@abulsme Updates from 2012-01-17 (UTC)

Still Not Sure About This

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Doing the Winter Thing

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Another 6+ inches due in the next 48 hours or so.

@abulsme Updates from 2012-01-16 (UTC)

2012 Republican Delegate Count: Huntsman Out

Nominally when a candidate drops out their delegates become free agents, but in practice if a candidate endorses another candidate, the delegates fall in line and vote for the person their candidate endorsed, at least for delegates from the primary and caucus process. My source for these delegates, The Green Papers, uses that presumption for their “soft count” (which is what I am using), so today we have Huntsman’s two delegates jumping over to Romney.

This also puts Romney back in the best position he has been in before voting started. He now has more than 50% of the delegates so far, which means he needs less than 50% of the remaining delegates to win. Another way to put that is that he doesn’t even have to match his performance so far to win. For the rest of the race he can do WORSE than he has done so far (including superdelegates!) and he will still win. The other candidates have to IMPROVE their performance in order to catch up and win. The amount they have to improve by isn’t completely out of the realm of contemplation yet, but it is getting higher.