Another good article on this sort of thing from Glenn Greenwald. This time looking at this in the context of SOPA and PIPA and how even without them the government ALREADY claims and exercises powers to shut down websites based on an accusation alone, not only after a proper advisory trial where the site gets to defend itself… see Megaupload this week. Just like the government claimed it has the powers explictly granted by the NDAA no matter if the law passed or not. Greenwald’s main point…
Whatever else is true, those issues should be decided upon a full trial in a court of law, not by government decree. Especially when it comes to Draconian government punishments — destroying businesses, shutting down websites, imprisoning people for life, assassinating them — what distinguishes a tyrannical society from a free one is whether the government is first required to prove guilt in a fair, adversarial proceeding. This is a precept Americans were once taught about why their country was superior, was reflexively understood, and was enshrined as the core political principle: “no person shall be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law.” It’s simply not a principle that is believed in any longer, and therefore is not remotely observed.
So, as we approach the voting in South Carolina, a few delegate shuffles. Perry’s 3 projected delegates from Iowa get put back into the undetermined category, Gingrich gains one super delegate, and Romney gains one superdelegate. All in all this improves everybody’s position except Rick Perry, although it is best for Romney. So here we are. We’ll see what South Carolina does to all this. In the mean time though, lets do a quick look using a different view:
This is the percentage of delegates each candidate has so far. Our Top 4 are: 58.8% Romney, 17.6% Paul, 13.7% Santorum, 9.8% Gingrich. But I wanted to compare, by looking at where we were four years ago.
What were the Top 4 back then? 46.2% Romney, 24.4% McCain, 18.6% Huckabee, 5.1% Thompson.
That’s right, at this time in 2008, Romney was ahead in the delegate race. Romney. Not McCain. McCain had just had a big success in South Carolina, which was enough to pass Huckabee and start talk about him being the front runner and how Romney was vulnerable. McCain wouldn’t pass Romney in delegates until January 30th after Florida voted (and then he didn’t look back). So where we are on January 21st isn’t necessarily predictive of the final result.
The dynamics are of course very different this time around. I just mention all this to point out that it is indeed still early. If Gingrich DOES pull out a major victory in South Carolina, taking the lion’s share of the delegates there, then that DOES change the dynamics of the race quite a bit. Romney still has a variety of systematic advantage even in that scenario, but it could make things more interesting for awhile longer!
The timelapse above is from my home office yesterday. Since I was working from home due to snow, you actually get to see me in my office some. The excitement of my crazy gesticulating during conference calls! The thrills of Alex coming to fetch me and climbing all over me before getting me to carry him back downstairs. The views of my midsection as I pace back and forth in front of the camera. All very exciting stuff!
This is all to note that I made some updates to the AbulCam lately. There is now sometimes sound if I don’t have it muted. Also, the way the timelapses are made will slow down even more when there is lots of motion, and speed up more when there is not, leading to more interesting timelapses. At least I think so. I’ve also matched the sizes of the live shot and the previous day’s timelapse. They are a little smaller, but that means they will load faster and stream better. I’ve also emoved some old clunky bits that didn’t work any more. Finally, at least for the moment, the portable wireless webcam I moved from place to place has died… a non-waterproof camera doesn’t like being left outside in the rain… even if it does generate some nice movies before dying… so the picture is going to be from the webcam on my desktop in my home office for awhile. But that means more me! Well, at least a little. Reality is I’m not in my office anywhere near as much as I would like and sometimes whole days go by without me dropping in at all. But hey, new and better timelapses!
DCW tracks one of the former Perry Delegates endorsing Romney, further enhancing Romney’s delegate count on his march to the nomination.
Having said that, recent polls clearly show the possibility of Gingrich taking the day in South Carolina this weekend. What will this mean with delegates?
Well, South Carolina has 25 delegates. 11 go to the overall winner of the popular vote in the state. Then 2 delegates are awarded to the winner of the popular vote in each of the 7 congressional districts.
So, the Gingrich best case is that he takes the overall win in the state, and his support is evenly distributed geographically, meaning he wins all 7 congressional districts. In this best case, he gets all 25 delegates from the state. If this actually happened, it would put our delegate count at 29 for Gingrich and 29 for Romney… a tie for the lead.
On the other hand, by the same logic, in Romney’s best case, if Gingrich falls short, and Romney gets the majority overall and wins the 7 congressional districts and thus gets all 25 delegates, he will have 54 delegates, with the next closest candidate being Ron Paul with only 9. That is a considerable lead.
With the latest polls having Romney and Gingrich neck and neck, either one of these is possible, although it is probably more likely that at least some of the 7 congressional districts will go for someone other than the statewide winner, leading to the “winner” (whoever it is) taking more than 11 delegates, but less than 25…. which will result in Romney still being ahead.
