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From Drudge:
Of course, early exit polls are notoriously unreliable. Final exit polls usually are pretty good, however, you’ll see real results at that point. I won’t be quite real time when states are called by CNN. For that, watch CNN. I’ll be posting updates to my graphs approximately every fifteen minutes or so, capturing any states that were called in the previous fifteen minutes. So, if CNN calls a bunch of states at 00:00:05 UTC… I’ll probably have the graphs up reflecting those shortly after 00:15 UTC. For all intents and purposes, Abulsme.com called the election for Obama on October 3rd when our “Best Case” for McCain was no longer to win. In the time since then, McCain has never changed that basic situation. Because of that, today I’m also tracking McCain’s “SuperBest” scenario, where he not only wins all the swing states, but also all of Obama’s “Weak” states, leaving Obama with only the states that he is ahead by more than 10% in. In that (very unlikely) scenario, McCain would still win… 291 to 247. For purposes of tonight, I’ll “call the election” when the SuperBest scenarios for the two candidates agree with each other. Basically, that will be when we hit the point where in order to win, the losing candidate would have to start winning states the other candidate is ahead by more than 10% in. We’ll see how long that takes. Other than Dixville Notch and Hart’s Landing of course. Parts of Indiana and Kentucky have now closed. The whole states will not be closed for another hour, so no networks will be calling them yet. But we may start to get some hints of what is happening. An hour from now we’ll have Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia fully closed. They won’t be talking about who wins yet, but about what issues are important and that sort of thing. But this is the beginning of tonight’s data deluge. By now, McCain is probably putting the finishing touches on his concession speech. Continuing again… State Court of Appeals Division 1 District 1 Position 6: Only one candidate, so I vote for me. State Superior Court Judge Position No. 1: My primary choice was Susan Amini. She did not make it to the general election. So I have to look at the other two. Looks like Bradshaw has a bit more relevant experience. I have no other real way to decide here. So I’ll vote for Tim Bradshaw. State Superior Court Judge Position No. 22: I ran out of time in the primary, so I have to look for the first time today. Garratt has been a judge before. Her opponent has not. I will vote for Julia Garratt. State Superior Court Judge Position No. 37: I ran out of time last time as well, so looking at this at the first time. As before, I’ll go with the person who is already a judge, although I’ll say again that I don’t think Judges should be elected positions. The mere fact of having to worry about election has the potential to hurt their impartiality. But oh well. My vote goes to Jean Rietschel. City of Bellevue Proposition No 1 Levy for City Parks and Natural Areas: This would improve a tax increase to pay for parks. It said tax increase. Not right now thank you. I will vote REJECTED. Sound Transit Proposition No 1 Mass Transit Expansion: This would raise taxes (although not by much) to fund the expansion of buses and trains to more places in the area. If you have read any of my other comments today, you’ll know I’m fairly anti-transit. It is not that I can’t enjoy a good train system if it is there. I like the Metro in DC. And some of the proposed routes might actually be useful to me. But… I just think it is not the best use of resources, and the subtext of trying to get people to drive less annoys me. I will vote REJECTED. And that is the end of my ballot. Time to get it all set in the official security envelope and walk it over to my local polling place to put in the box. Just noticed that while there was only one candidate on the ballot for State Supreme Court Justice Position #3, in the top two primary in August, there actually were two candidates. I voted for myself in protest, but presumably the top two should have won and moved on. Why is there only one candidate on the November ballot? Mary Fairhurst is here, but Michael Bond is gone. Why? I did a quick Google, but didn’t find anything. Anyway, I already voted for myself as a protest since there was only one person on the ballot. Ah… I found it. There is a minimum percentage of the vote threshold to move on to the General election, even if you come in second. Mr. Bond did not meet that threshold. That sucks. If you are going to do a top two thing, number two should get on the general election ballot, even if they only got 1 vote. With some way to deal with ties of course. Oh well. |
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