A ton of states closing shortly. Several of them are “Strong” states that it should be possible to call almost immediately.
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By the way, the CNN Hologram thingy looks stupid. Wow. More than 40 people looking at this site right now. Most of them on the Electoral College Prediction page, but a bunch wandering around elsewhere too. This is a new record for this site.
Kentucky called for McCain, Vermont for Obama. Both were strong states, so no surprises and this does not change the summary at all: Summary: McCain SuperBest: McCain 291, Obama 247 Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189 Obama Best Case: Obama 406, McCain 132 ARRGGH! Tick Tock! Tick Tock! And of course, the numbers ACTUALLY don’t predict the everybody gets their leans numbers from the last post. They say that anything between Obama 406, McCain 132 and Obama 291, McCain 247 is very very possible. My final “everybody gets their leans” prediction before CNN starts calling states is Obama 349, McCain 189. My gut tells me that Obama will actually over-perform that. But I don’t trust my gut, I’ll stick with what the numbers tell me. Until the first states are closed completely, and networks undoubtedly start calling the states that are not close. The suspense is killing me. :-) If you want to see my updates as soon as I make them, refresh the Electoral College Prediction page occasionally. I will be making the changes there first, then post on the blog about them. Of course, it also takes me a few minutes to update that page fully. The chart at the top will change first. Then the table summary. Then the possible totals. Then the map. The process takes a few minutes, so during that time the various bits are out of sync with each other. Normally that doesn’t matter too much, but right now with lots of people looking, it could produce odd results. (At the moment for instance, 11 people are looking at that page.) Is staring to dribble in on CNN. So far McCain 60%, Obama 38%. Of course, that is with 0% reporting, and this is a state McCain is expected to win by a 13%+ margin according to the last polls. But hey, actual votes!!! After two years, actual votes!!! Finally! |
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