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This is the update for 03:00 UTC covering states called in the previous 15 minutes. New Mexico, a “Weak Obama” state was called for Obama. Louisiana, a “Strong McCain” state was called for McCain. So the range of possibilities narrows further. Summary: McCain SuperBest: Obama 289, McCain 249 Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189 Obama Best Case: Obama 388, McCain 150
This is the 02:45 UTC update covering the 15 minutes before that point. One state was called. Ohio went to Obama. Ohio was a “Weak Obama” state. This makes even McCain’s “SuperBest” scenario… which was incredibly generous and frankly unrealistic… still an Obama victory. THIS. IS. OVER. Obama is the President Elect. The networks will probably not call it until they actually call 270+ electoral votes for him. But it is over. We now just look at how big a win he gets. Summary: McCain SuperBest: Obama 284, McCain 254 Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189 Obama Best Case: Obama 388, McCain 150 There still have not yet been any states that have not gone the way they were predicted in my averages. We still have six “swing” states that were too close to call to go though, so that may very well yet happen… and likely will on at least one state.
This is the update for 02:30 UTC covering states covered in the prior 15 minutes. (Yes, I know I’m a little behind.) West Virginia was called for McCain. It was a “Weak McCain” state. This further narrows the range of possibilities, this time lowing Obama’s maximums. Summary: McCain SuperBest: McCain 274, Obama 264 Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189 Obama Best Case: Obama 388, McCain 150 Obama’s SuperBest and Best are now the same, as there are no more “Weak McCain” states to be decided. It will take me a few minutes to catch up on the graphs, but CNN just called Ohio for Obama. That will take away McCain’s last desperate chance for victory. From now on it is just about how big a win Obama has.
This is the 2:15 UTC update, covering states called in the 15 minutes before that. We finally have some states called from Weak and Lean categories. First, Strong states called: Rhode Island, Wisoconsin, Minnesota and New York for Obama Minnesota also went for Obama though, and that was a “Weak Obama”. Finally, two “Lean McCain” swing states are called for McCain.. Georgia and North Dakota. With all these taken off the table, the range of possibilities narrows greatly: Summary: McCain SuperBest: McCain 274, Obama 264 Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189 Obama Best Case: Obama 388, McCain 150 The center line remains the same. No states have flipped to a candidate they were not leaning toward. But we are slowly taking those flip possibilities off the table. McCain’s “SuperBest” case of winning is now holding on by a thread. This is almost over.
This update covers states called before 02:00 UTC. Alabama goes to McCain. Alabama was a Strong McCain state, so this is no surprise. We have not yet had any surprises tonight, or any states called that are not strong. So the summary still remains the same: Summary: McCain SuperBest: McCain 291, Obama 247 Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189 Obama Best Case: Obama 406, McCain 132 Yet another wave coming soon…
This is the 01:45 Update. Both Pennsylvania and New Hampshire called for Obama. Both of these states were “Strong Obama” states in the final polls, so neither of these is a surprise at all, and the summary yet again remains the same. It will stay exactly the same until they start calling “Weak” or “Lean” states. Summary: McCain SuperBest: McCain 291, Obama 247 Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189 Obama Best Case: Obama 406, McCain 132
This is the 01:15 UTC Update. CNN called Massachusetts, Illinois, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and DC for Obama. They also called Oklahoma and Tennessee for McCain. Maine splits its four electoral votes. CNN has called 3 of them for Obama, the other is still uncalled. All of these changes are in “Strong” states, so the overall status remains the same: Summary: McCain SuperBest: McCain 291, Obama 247 Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189 Obama Best Case: Obama 406, McCain 132
This is the 01:00 Update. South Carolina Called for McCain. This was a Strong McCain state, so the summary does not change: Summary: McCain SuperBest: McCain 291, Obama 247 Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189 Obama Best Case: Obama 406, McCain 132 |
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