This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon

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November 2008
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Ballot Page Two (Part 3)

Continuing… these next five will be easy.

State Representative Position 2 District 41: There is only one candidate, so I vote for me.

State Supreme Court Position No. 3: There is only one candidate, so I vote for me.

State Supreme Court Position No. 4: There is only one candidate, so I vote for me.

State Supreme Court Position No. 7: There is only one candidate, so I vote for me. I note that I had a reader write in to say they would vote for me on this one. Brandy also changed her vote at the last minute to vote for me on this one as well. Three votes. Woo!

State Court of Appeals Division 1 District 1 Position 5: There is only one candidate, so I vote for me.

Gotta love those write in votes.

More in another post soon. There are four more positions left to vote on, then two propositions.

Ballot Page Two (Part 2)

Continuing Page 2…

Commissioner of Public Lands: My primary choice was once again me, and once again just a protest because there were only two candidates. So I need to look at the candidates. Once again, with brief looks at their statements and their websites, I find nothing particular that would make me lean one way or another. This really should be an appointed position. In any case, as the tie break, I will go with the challenger. My vote goes to Peter Goldmark.

Superintendent of Public Instruction: My primary choice was Randy Dorn. I vote for him again.

Insurance Commissioner: My primary choice was me. Because I didn’t like any of the candidates. OK, I will vote for me again.

State Senator District 41: My primary choice was me, but only because there were only two candidates. So once again I should look at the candidates. If Fred Jarrett had an issues section on his site, I could not find it. Meanwhile, I could easily find Bob Baker’s issues page without trying. And I like a lot of what I read. Plus… I’ve seen his yard sign. It has very few words on it other than his name. It says “No Tolls on I-90 Bridge”. I go across that bridge a couple times a day, and I agree completely. And from his website it seems he is also generally of the same pro-car orientation as I am. So my vote goes for Bob Baker.

State Representative Position 1 District 41: My primary choice was me. Once again a protest of only having two choices. So once again, I need to look at the candidates. Once again I think transportation is the deciding issue for me. Litzow is against tolling on I-90 and seems more car friendly. My vote goes to Steve Litzow.

To be continued in another post soon…

McCain Chance of Winning: 1.1%

According to fivethirtyeight.com as of this morning.

(via Slog)

Ballot Page Two (Part 1)

I have now finished Page 1 of the ballot and am starting Page 2. Most of the positions here were also on the primary ballot, and I did my research then. If my choice in the primary is on the general election ballot, I’ll just go ahead and choose them without further research. If they did not make it, I’ll look at more. I’ll just include a lot of these in this post.

Lieutenant Governor: My primary choice was… me. I thought all of the candidates sucked. I will stick with my previous judgment and vote for myself again.

Secretary of State: My primary choice was Sam Reed. I vote for him again.

State Treasurer: My primary choice was Allan Martin. I vote for him again.

State Auditor: My primary choice was Glen Freeman, who did not make the General election. Rereading my comments from before, I don’t like either of the two on the ballot, and will write myself in.

Attorney General: My primary choice was me, but it was a protest for there only being two candidates in a top two runoff, which is a waste. Guess I should look quickly at the two candidates. I am only doing a very brief look due to time. Bleh, there are three debates online between these two, but I don’t have time for that. Just with a quick look at their statements and their websites, I don’t see much that would make me lean to either of the two. I consider it a tossup. In the case of a tossup, I will prefer the challenger, as I think generally it helps to shake up a position occasionally. Therefore I will vote for John Ladenburg.

I’ll do more in a separate post shortly.

Washington State Governor

This is another rematch. Four years ago Christine Gregoire (Democrat) beat Dino Rossi (Republican) by less than 200 votes it seems. I was not in Washington at the time, and have not followed local issues much since, so I didn’t know much about either person.

My first impression of Governor Gregoire was when I saw her at Democratic Caucus events earlier this year. My impression was decidedly negative. Almost every word out of her mouth made me want to scream.

Meanwhile, I knew nothing at all about Rossi.

For this general election, I had several Gubernatorial debates on my Tivo. I of course waited to the last minute and had not watched any of them before election day. I just watched the first one I had, recorded September 20th. It is the only one I had time to watch, and so therefore my vote will be based essentially only on the candidates’ performance in that one debate.

I continued to have an incredibly negative view of Gregoire.

First, on policy: She is very statist. It seemed like almost everything was something that could and should be solved by government. This is something I dislike a lot. One of the big issues seems to be transportation policy. She was repeatedly slamming roads and pushing public transportation sorts of solutions instead. Screw that. Give me my car damn it. Give me roads to drive on it. Make the roads big and wide. Take your collectivist trains and buses and shove them. OK, that is overly harsh. I like the occasional train and bus, although I would prefer when they are private efforts rather than public. But they should not be primary policy. Promote maximum flexibility for the individual please. And that is small vehicles that seat a handful of people at most. And this is just typical of the other policies she was promoting. They were all about ways that government could engage in social engineering to try to solve problems. I know government must be involved to some extent in many of these things, but please make it as little as possible.

Second, her attitude and temperament: She seemed cranky and angry. And bitter. She was constantly attacking Rossi. It was very very negative. Very little positive about herself, just attack, attack, attack. And she seemed arrogant and dismissive. She said several times “Those aren’t the values of the people of Washington”. How dare she presume to represent the values of the entire state. She won by a hair’s breadth last time, half the state obviously disagrees with her.

Meanwhile, Rossi seemed even tempered and stable. He never raised his voice or sounded angry. And he kept talking baout fiscal responsibility, living within our means, and generally not having government intrude where it did not need to. And on transportation he was much more pro-car.

I can’t say I actually LIKED Rossi. He seemed a little slimy too. And perhaps even like he was hiding his true self a bit. It seemed slightly fake. Like he was forcing himself to be calm.

However, more so than before, I actively DISLIKE Gregoire, and I definitely disagree on her general approach to government.

Therefore, my vote:

Dino Rossi (Prefers G.O.P. Party)

…although I must say, that absolutely idiotic “GOP Party” thing almost makes me want to change my mind in and of itself. Grand Old Party Party my ass. Just say Republican.

United States Representative Congressional District No 8

This is one of the “close” House elections nation wide. So my vote may actually make a difference here. It is a rematch of a race two years ago. The incumbent is Republican Dave Reichert. The challenger is Democrat Darcy Burner.

I am honestly very very tempted to assume an Obama victory, and then in the interest of having as divided a government as possible (which I generally think is better) voting Republican for the House, regardless of the actual candidate and their positions on things. I think having a healthy strong opposition is important. I don’t like it when one party controls the Presidency and both houses of Congress. That looks pretty much inevitable though. But maybe keeping a Republican in this seat would at least reduce the Democratic margin by one, whihc might help just a little bit. Maybe.

I am tempted by the argument above. But I also fundamentally believe that it is counter-productive to make electoral decisions on meta-arguments about the state of the whole government. I believe you should for the most part ignore party affiliations and just look at the people running for office themselves as well as the positions they hold on issues. And you should vote for the person who on an individual basis you would most like to see in office.

I saw Darcy Burner at various events over the course of this year. I have heard her stump speech. At first I rather liked her. But then on a number of things she got a bit too partisan for me. She was a bit too dogmatic. She didn’t seem to give even a nod to the concerns and viewpoints of those who disagreed with her. She was right and they were wrong. It was that simple. I did not like that. (Of course, they were Democratic Party events full of partisans, so I should probably make allowance for that.)

On the other hand, I really do not know much about Reichert other than what is in his candidate statement and what is on his website. I found nothing horribly objectionable, but nothing to call him out either. And there is one thing in specific I’d be looking for in order to vote for a Republican for Congress. I’d want to see him ignoring party lines and showing active criticism of the Bush administration for the extensive executive overreach it has conducted over the past eight years. I would want to see them defending the rights and prerogatives of the congress vs the executive. I would want to see them defending the rights of the people against the power of the government. I have seen none of that. (Example of a Republican who has done all of the above and whom I would support… Ron Paul.)

Therefore, despite the fact that she annoyed me a bit, I think Darcy Burner is a closer match to my own positions and will better represent me in Congress. Plus, I think she is a geek. And that is a good thing. (OK, a Microsoft geek, which isn’t quite as good, but still.)

So my vote:

Darcy Burner (Prefers Democratic Party)

President and Vice President of the United States

OK, I read the bios and statements of all eight tickets on my ballot. But I am running out of time and won’t waste it going through all of them. All of the third parties this year are a joke and aren’t worth it. (This includes the Libertarians, who I am usually inclined toward.)

Anybody who has been reading my blog or listening to my podcast this year knows my choice here, I’ve talked about it multiple times.

I disagree with Barack Obama on a lot of things, mainly in the area of Domestic Policy. I will be angry and annoyed at many things he does. But on foreign policy, which I generally believe is more important, I am very closely aligned with Obama’s positions.

But more importantly, there is an issue of temperament and process. From reading his books, especially his second book, one thing is clear. Obama is a thoughtful person. He considers issues carefully and deliberately. He takes into account and respects the opinions even of those he disagrees with adamantly. He is calm and cool in a crisis. He does not act impulsively. He acts out of rational analysis, not out of emotion.

This is the kind of person who should always be President. It is not what we have had for the past 8 years (arguably for the last 16 years actually). It is certainly not what John McCain would provide. But it is what is needed.

And yes, I believe the post-partisan message Obama has expounded in his 2004 Convention Speech and with regularity since then. I hope that his “Progressive” supporters that expect him to push strongly for highly partisan left-wing policies will be sorely disappointed. Of course, it could just as well be me who is sorely disappointed. As I said, I expect to be quite upset with many things Obama does.

But not only do I believe he is better than the alternatives, I believe that on balance he will be a positive force more in line with what I would want than not.

So my vote:

Barack Obama and Joe Biden (Democratic Party Nominees)

Electoral College: New Mexico Strengthens for Obama

YouGov looks like they have done polls in all 50 states plus DC. I’ve processed them up through Tennessee in alphabetical order. So far only one category change.

New Mexico (5 ev): Obama’s lead in the five poll average goes over 10% for the very first time. As such the state moves from “Weak Obama” to “Strong Obama”. This will reduce McCain’s “SuperBest” scenario.

New Summary:

McCain SuperBest: McCain 291, Obama 247
McCain Best Case: Obama 291, McCain 247

Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189

Obama Best Case: Obama 406, McCain 132
Obama SuperBest: Obama 411, McCain 127

Electoral College: Virginia stops Swinging, Pennsylvania Strengthens

I actually took a few hours to sleep, so I’m a couple hours late posting these changes, but with some new Zogby polls, we have two states changing status:

Pennsylvania (21 ev): Obama’s lead in Pennsylvania once again hits 10%. McCain’s managed to pull Obama’s lead down from 14.1% to 5.4%… but then it stalled and Obama’s lead started growing again. As of now with the new Zogby poll added to the five poll average, Obama’s lead is exactly at the 10.0% mark, but that is enough for the state to move back into “Strong Obama” territory.

Virginia (13 ev): McCain had also reduced Obama’s lead in Virginia, making it poke below the 5% line. But with the new Zogby poll, it pushes again above 5%, making the state move back to “Weak Obama”. Virginia is once again NOT a swing state, and is not included in McCain’s best case scenario. It is still however included in the “SuperBest” scenario I added for election day.

New Summary:

McCain SuperBest: McCain 296, Obama 242
McCain Best Case: Obama 291, McCain 247

Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189

Obama Best Case: Obama 406, McCain 132
Obama SuperBest: Obama 411, McCain 127

Obama also won Hart’s Location

Barack Obama – 17 votes
John McCain – 10 votes
Ron Paul – 2 votes

(via Balloon Juice)

Go Ron Paul! :-)