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November 2008
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Electoral College: Called – RI, MI, WI, MN, NY, WY, ND, GA

This is the 2:15 UTC update, covering states called in the 15 minutes before that.

We finally have some states called from Weak and Lean categories.

First, Strong states called:

Rhode Island, Wisoconsin, Minnesota and New York for Obama
Wyoming for McCain

Minnesota also went for Obama though, and that was a “Weak Obama”.

Finally, two “Lean McCain” swing states are called for McCain.. Georgia and North Dakota.

With all these taken off the table, the range of possibilities narrows greatly:

Summary:

McCain SuperBest: McCain 274, Obama 264
McCain Best Case: Obama 291, McCain 247

Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189

Obama Best Case: Obama 388, McCain 150
Obama SuperBest: Obama 393, McCain 145

The center line remains the same. No states have flipped to a candidate they were not leaning toward. But we are slowly taking those flip possibilities off the table.

McCain’s “SuperBest” case of winning is now holding on by a thread. This is almost over.

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