This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon

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November 2008
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Electoral College: Obama loses strength in Michigan

Another change from a new poll, this time from me reviewing each of pollster.com’s state charts one by one, which I usually do daily, but I’m doing every 6 hours today. I’m not sure about this one though, as I’ve found no other reference to this poll yet, and it looks like an extreme outlier, but would fit in EXACTLY with the trend if you reversed Obama and McCain’s numbers. So I suspect this may actually be a typo on Pollster which will be corrected later. If so, I will undo this change if/when I see evidence of the other result. But in case this is real, it causes Obama’s lead in Michigan to dip under 10%, moving the state from Strong Obama to Weak Obama.

New Summary:

McCain SuperBest: McCain 317, Obama 221
McCain Best Case: Obama 278, McCain 260

Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189

Obama Best Case: Obama 406, McCain 132
Obama SuperBest: Obama 411, McCain 127

King County Charter Amendment No. 5 Establishing Forecast Council and Office of Economic and Financial Analysis

Full text here.

This would establish an office responsible for producing economic forecasts and analysis which would be used to guide budget decisions. I repeat my statement about how the fact that a ballot measure is needed to approve this sort of thing is crazy. But this seems reasonable.

My vote:

YES

King County Charter Amendment No. 4 Additional Qualifications for Elected Officials

Full text is here.

This would allow the County Council to establish additional qualifications for certain elected positions. (For instance, requiring that a Sheriff have law enforcement experience.)

I fundamentally think that any position that really and truly requires very specific qualifications should be an appointed position, not an elected position. If however a position is made an election position, regardless of the job description, then the voters should have full and total authority to vote in whoever they want. (I’d even disagree with age and citizenship requirements and such… if it is an elected position, let the voters decide… let them vote for a ripe watermelon if they really want to for that matter.)

Voters may sometimes be stupid, but the nature of a democracy is that if the voters want something, they get it… and often it is exactly what they deserve when they make a stupid choice. But the whole point is that it is the choice of the electorate. And MOST of the time, they make decent decisions.

This change is unnecessary and stupid. And it is only even being considered because there are elected positions that should not be elected positions in the first place.

My vote:

NO

King County Charter Amendment No. 3 Regional Committees

Full text is here.

This is about changing the makeup and authority of various county committees. Honestly, I couldn’t care one way or another, and it seems to me that something is very broken in how county government is organized if you need a ballot item to change minor things like this.

Anyway, this seems harmless, and the local government folks seem to want it, so…

My vote is:

YES

Obama wins Dixville Notch!!

Obama 15 votes, McCain 6 votes.

Dixville Notch has not voted Democratic in a presidential race since 1968.

A sign of things to come?

Electoral College: Missouri flips back to Obama

I have logged 15 polls since my last daily update but I just logged the first one that moved any state to a new category. A new Rasmussen poll moves the five poll average in Missouri (11 ev) back to the Obama side of the fence. The same caveat as usual, either way the state is too close to call. We’ll see when the actual results start coming in.

But for now, a new status update.

In order to show any sort of McCain win scenario, I’ve added a “SuperBest” scenario, where a candidate gets not only all of their strong and weak states, and all of the swing states, but also all of their opponent’s weak states. McCain can still win if he manages that. :-)

Summary:

McCain SuperBest: McCain 300, Obama 238
McCain Best Case: Obama 278, McCain 260

Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189

Obama Best Case: Obama 406, McCain 132
Obama SuperBest: Obama 411, McCain 127

(Note: For election day only, I’m logging polls as soon as I find them anywhere, even if they have not yet been logged at pollster.com.)

Obama on his Grandmother

(via Daily Kos)

Handy Poll Closing Map

(via DCW)

The first polls (other than Dixville Notch, which we should have results from in about an hour) close at 23:00 UTC. That is a little under 19 hours from now.

Those are partial states though. The first moment entire states will be closed is 00:00 UTC. At that point Georgia (15 ev), Virginia (13 ev), Indiana (11 ev), Kentucky (8 ev), South Carolina (8 ev) and Vermont (3 ev) will be closed and the networks will start calling the ones that are not close, and will start showing preliminary results for the ones that are.

At that hour, watch Georgia, Virginia and Indiana carefully. Between looking at how the three of them are going, we’ll probably have a good sense for how the rest of the night will go.

King County Charter Amendment No. 2 Prohibiting Discrimination

Full text here.

Basically adds disability and sexual orientation to the list of things that the County can’t discriminate against in hiring or contracting.

I am generally opposed to laws that in any way whatsoever restrict who PRIVATE entities can hire or why they can hire them. That includes non-discrimination laws. I think private entities should be able to do whatever the hell they want, and if they make decisions in ways other than merit alone, they will suffer the economic consequences of that stupid choice.

However, this is GOVERNMENTAL hiring and contracting. I very much think the government should be required to not discriminate on irrelevant attributes. If I was doing such, I would not give a list of things you can’t discriminate on, I would instead require that ONLY attributes directly relevant to the candidate (or contractor’s) ability to accomplish the tasks required of them for the position / assignment could be taken into account. (Of course, this would prohibit any and all forms of affirmative action as well, which would be a good thing.) This does not go that far.

But I guess as long as you are going to have things on a list, it is OK for these things to be on the list too.

My vote:

YES

McCain Chance of Winning: 1.9%

That’s McCain’s win percentage in fivethirtyeight.com’s latest update. Those are the longest odds he has ever had in their tracking. That’s about a 1 in 50 chance of victory. That still isn’t impossible… but…