Calling the Election

For all intents and purposes, Abulsme.com called the election for Obama on October 3rd when our “Best Case” for McCain was no longer to win. In the time since then, McCain has never changed that basic situation.

Because of that, today I’m also tracking McCain’s “SuperBest” scenario, where he not only wins all the swing states, but also all of Obama’s “Weak” states, leaving Obama with only the states that he is ahead by more than 10% in. In that (very unlikely) scenario, McCain would still win… 291 to 247. For purposes of tonight, I’ll “call the election” when the SuperBest scenarios for the two candidates agree with each other. Basically, that will be when we hit the point where in order to win, the losing candidate would have to start winning states the other candidate is ahead by more than 10% in.

We’ll see how long that takes.