Sundays are usually slow, but we still get some action and three states moving today.

Virginia (13 ev): After just two days below the line, Obama’s lead in the five poll average in Virginia once again goes over 5%. It is still near the line, so it could go back with the next polls, but for now, Virginia is once again “Weak Obama” and no longer a swing state.

Colorado (9 ev): After five days as a swing state, Obama’s lead in Colorado also goes back over 5%. So, like Virginia, Colorado once again goes into the “Weak Obama” category and out of swing state status.

Arkansas (6 ev): The one piece of good news for McCain today. McCain’s lead in Arkansas once again goes over 10%, moving the state from “Weak McCain” to “Strong McCain”. Unfortunately for John McCain, this is just a little strengthening in a state he was going to win anyway.

New Summary:

McCain Best Case – Obama 306, McCain 232
Obama Best Case – Obama 393, McCain 145

If everybody gets their leans – 364 Obama, 174 McCain

Not much new to report in terms of overall summary though.

McCain’s best case is still to win every swing state… and still lose the election.

The only things that have been changing in the analysis lately are how badly McCain loses in his best case, and just how much of a landslide Obama gets in his best case.

The “everybody gets their leans” line hasn’t moved in 11 days.

Yawn!

Edit 23:47 – Fixed numbers which were accidentally reversed as per comment.

Three states change status today:

Ohio (20 ev): The prototypical swing state is no longer a swing state, as Obama’s lead in the last five poll average moves over 5% in Ohio. Ohio is now “Weak Obama”. Could the next poll knock it back down into swing state status? Sure. It is close to the boundary between the categories. But for now, Ohio goes blue.

Minnesota (10 ev): Obama’s lead moves over 10%, making Minnesota “Strong Obama” once again. It had been strong Obama up through mid-August, then got tighter until it was a swing state for a bit in September. Since then Obama’s lead has been climbing until now it is once again Strong Obama.

West Virginia (5 ev): After having had McCain’s lead weaken and becoming a “Lean McCain” swing state for most of October, McCain reopens the lead. Today his lead in the five poll average again goes over 5%, and West Virginia again turns red.

New Summary:

McCain Best Case – Obama 297, McCain 241
Obama Best Case – Obama 378, McCain 160

If everybody gets their leans – 364 Obama, 174 McCain

So Obama’s best case isn’t quite as good as it was, and McCain’s best case gets worse as well. Of course, Ohio is 20 electoral votes and West Virginia is only 5, so Obama wins on this exchange.

Of course, McCain’s best case was already to lose. Today’s change just means his best case is to lose by even more.

If Ohio does not immediately switch back with the next polls, it looks as if the progress McCain looked like he was making in the last week or so may have been reversed. The line that represents Obama’s position with Strong+Weak states is now once again moving in Obama’s direction.

Meanwhile though, the “Strong Obama” line just keeps moving further in Obama’s direction. With ONLY HIS STRONG STATES Obama is now only 15 electoral college votes away from winning.

This may be a good time to point out that all the “Action” we have been talking about in these updates lately is related to the lines representing where Obama is WITHOUT ANY SWING STATES. The question we have been tracking is not if Obama is winning or losing, it is if he even needs any of the close states to do it. (And since October 3rd, the answer has been “no”.)

But if you look at the line that represents everybody getting every state they are even slightly ahead in… McCain has only been in the lead for ONE DAY since May 23rd. (He managed a tie for 8 additional days.)

This line, the actual who is ahead line, has not had any moves in McCain’s direction in OVER A MONTH. Since September 18th when McCain peaked, every single state that has actually had the lead switch has switched to Obama. Every single one.

This may change. Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Colorado and Nevada all have relatively slim Obama leads. But still… winning all of them seems like a big stretch. And even that would not be enough.

McCain has no time left.

The only questions at this point are about just how big Obama’s win will be, not if he wins.

Absent a catastrophic event that changes everything of course. Those do sometimes happen. But there are only 12 days left.

Today Obama’s lead in Colorado drops below 5%, moving that state from “Weak Obama” back into swing state status. This expands the inventory of swing states, and improves McCain’s best case that assumes he gets all the swing states.

New Summary:

McCain Best Case – Obama 277, McCain 261
Obama Best Case – Obama 383, McCain 155

If everybody gets their leans – 364 Obama, 174 McCain

Now, this still has McCain’s best case being to lose. However, it has him losing by much less than he has been. Looking back at the last week, Florida finally stopped moving around, and seems to have stabilized as a “Lean Obama” swing state, but still a swing state, and within reach of McCain. It now looks clear that Obama peaked around October 15th (at least on the currently most important “Weak Obama” line) and we are now seeing the predicted tightening in the race.

Now, for McCain to actually have a path to victory, he needs to move at least 9 more electoral votes into swing state status out of “Weak Obama”. That means he needs to get Obama’s lead down to less than 5%. (And then of course he has to take the lead, but one step at a time.)

The current Weak Obama states are: Virginia (13 ev) 8.0% Obama lead, Washington (11 ev) 9.6% Obama lead, Minnesota (10 ev) 9.8% Obama lead, New Mexico (5 ev) 7.5% Obama lead, Maine (4 ev) 9.6% Obama lead, New Hampshire (4 ev) 8.4% Obama lead. You can work out for yourself possible plans for McCain to pull some of those down, but it looks like a long road.

(Additionally, a corrective note, I’m not sure how I missed it on the day it happened, but on October 14th New Jersey moved from Weak Obama to Strong Obama. I have retroactively corrected the charts as of today, but obviously not my comments from the days since then or the thumbnail charts in those comments. Since it does not change the swing states, this would not have affected any of the summary numbers. It does however make the charts look even stronger for Obama than they did with New Jersey as a “Weak Obama” state.)

13 states, 1 change. McCain’s lead in North Dakota slips to under 5%, so the state moves from “Weak McCain” to “Lean McCain” and it once again is a swing state. Now, the 3 electoral votes from North Dakota will most likely not make any difference. But North Dakota being in play again just shows the extent of Obama’s current lead.

New Summary:

McCain Best Case – Obama 286, McCain 252
Obama Best Case – Obama 383, McCain 155

If everybody gets their leans – 364 Obama, 174 McCain

Overall, despite North Dakota’s move, it seems that overall Obama’s lead has peaked. Looking at some of the polls in states where the category did not change, there may be some additional moves toward McCain in the wings if more individual polls move in his direction. I certainly still expect some tightening before we get to election day. But we still don’t really see it in the state by state analysis.