Electoral College: FL Stops Swinging, It Is Over, Obama Wins, We Can All Go Home Now

I am of course kidding with the title. I would honestly be surprised if the situation today lasts through election day without the race tightening again somewhat. However, today’s update is a very significant milestone for Barack Obama.

First, canceling each other out exactly, Wisconsin (10 ev) moves from Lean Obama to Weak Obama, and Minnesota (10 ev) moves from Weak Obama to Lean Obama. If Wisconsin had moved and Minnesota had not, this would contribute even more strongly to the result today, but because of Minnesota, it is a wash.

However… today the five poll average in Florida, for the very first time, shows an Obama lead of more than 5%. This makes Florida a “Weak Obama” state, and pulls it out of swing state status. So winning Florida is no longer considered in my “Best Case Scenario” for John McCain. And where does that leave us?

New Summary:

McCain Best Case – Obama 277, McCain 261
Obama Best Case – Obama 375, McCain 163

If everybody gets their leans – 353 Obama, 185 McCain

That’s right. You saw it correctly.

As of right now, John McCain’s best case scenario is TO LOSE. He could win EVERY SINGLE SWING STATE… and he would STILL LOSE.

Let me just let that sink in.

As of right now, John McCain’s best case scenario is TO LOSE. He could win EVERY SINGLE SWING STATE… and he would STILL LOSE.

OK. Now perhaps a little reality. I fully expect some of the “Weak Obama” states may end up becoming swing states again before this is done. (Like Minnesota did today for instance.) So this situation will PROBABLY not last. Probably. Assuming that McCain is able to reverse some of his recent fortunes and is really near his bottom and can’t go much lower.

On the other hand, if the McCain campaign continues to collapse, we may be on the way to a landslide.

Just over one month to go. Time is running out. If McCain managed to reverse this and win it would be an amazing comeback. We’ll see if he can manage it.