There were seemingly hundreds of polls since yesterday’s update. Just tons. Slogging through them all, we find there are polls in 35 states… and… finally… at long last… a poll in the District of Columbia. So we now have complete polling coverage across all electoral votes, and I will no longer have to say things like “and assuming Obama wins DC”. Which is a good thing.

In any case, there are a full six states (and DC) changing status today. Four of those are good news for McCain, three are good news for Obama. So it is kind of a mixed day, but I’m going to have to still give the day to McCain, as one of the changes is a swing state (Colorado) flipping in his direction, and moving us out of a tied electoral vote situation and into an actual McCain lead in the “give everybody every state they are even slightly ahead in” metric.

I’ll break up the states to report on today into which direction they are moving.

States moving in McCain’s direction:

Texas (34 ev): Texas, which a long time ago early in the race had a few tantalizing polls indicating that maybe Obama had a chance, now moves to a greater than 10% McCain lead, making the state “Solid McCain”.

Arizona (10 ev): Despite being McCain’s home state, McCain’s lead had always been less than 10%. No more. McCain solidifies his lead and moves his lead to more than 10% and puts Arizona into the “Solid McCain” category, where it possibly should have been all along.

Wisconsin (10 ev): Obama’s lead in Wisconsin drops to less than 5%. This moves the state from “Weak Obama” to “Lean Obama”. This makes Wisconsin now a swing state, and potentially in play for McCain. Despite the lower electoral college total, this is probably actually the most significant move toward McCain in today’s update. It gives another place where McCain can push into Obama territory and put Obama even more on the defensive.

Colorado (9 ev): As usual I will caution that although this is the state that made me give the day to McCain, we have a swing state moving from “Lean Obama” to “Lean McCain”. In today’s update we went from Obama being ahead by 0.6% to McCain being ahead by 0.4%. Either way the state is really too close to call, and we should treat it that way. So this change in status, may not really be a change at all. We’re just bouncing around within error of the zero line. But never the less, it puts the over all electoral college total in McCain’s favor for the first time since May.

States moving in Obama’s direction:

Florida (27 ev): McCain’s lead in Florida, which a few days ago had moved over 5% pulling the state out of swing state category. But today, the five poll average once again slips below 5%, thus moving Florida from “Weak McCain” back to “Lean McCain”. So Florida is once again a swing state, and is once again in play for Obama. Obama has never been ahead in Florida. But for most of the year it has been close. It is once again close.

West Virginia (5 ev): Perhaps a surprising one, although I have read a few commentators mention that this state could actually be vulnerable. And McCain’s strength there is weakening. The state has been very lightly polled, with only four polls so far this year. But this latest poll moves the average to a less than 10% lead for McCain, so the state moves from “Strong McCain” to “Weak McCain”. If Obama was still in a strong position overall, he might want to start throwing resources into West Virginia to try to turn it into a swing state. But the trends have been against him lately and he is actually behind overall at the moment, he’d probably be better off concentrating on the actual swing states right now.

District of Columbia (3 ev): This one is of course no surprise to anybody, which is one of the reasons that it has taken so long for anybody do to a poll here. Nobody expected anything different than what we got. The first poll shows 82% Obama, 13% McCain… a 69% lead for Obama. Yeah, this is “Strong Obama” country.

McCain Best Case – McCain 326, Obama 212
Obama Best Case – Obama 355, McCain 183

If everybody gets their leans – McCain 278, Obama 260

Has the McCain “bump” peaked yet? Well, Obama actually has some states with good news, which has been very unusual lately. And Florida being competitive again is definitely very good news for Obama. But I’m not ready to say yet that things are actually moving in Obama’s direction.

If we start having a few days with more things moving in Obama’s direction again than moving toward McCain then perhaps we’ll be able to say that. But for today, I’d still have to say McCain wins the day. But barely.

Only one change for today, and for once, it is good news for Obama. But I’m not sure we can declare the McCain bump to be over quite yet.

For only the second time this year, and the first time since the VP selection, there was a poll of Delaware. As a result of this poll, the average for Delaware (normally I use a five poll average, but since there have only been two, I can only use two…) moves to Obama being ahead by more than 10%. Woo! Now those three electoral votes are in the bag for Obama! :-)

OK, I kid. Even before this, the one poll in Delaware had Obama up 9%. So nobody was ever worried about Delaware, or particularly interested as it was considered a lock for Obama. I had it categorized as “Weak Obama” since it was under 10%, but it was barely under. In any case, Delaware is now officially “Solid Obama”. It does not change the summary:

New Summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 319, Obama 219
Obama Best Case – Obama 328, McCain 210

If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – 269/269 ELECTORAL COLLEGE TIE

If you look at the chart, you can see over the last week or so some small movement in the Obama strong and weak lines over the past few days. This is New Mexico coming back out of swing state territory where it was a few days ago, and today’s strengthening in Delaware. It would be tempting to look at this and think that maybe this was the start for a reversal of the McCain gains of the last couple of weeks.

That would however be premature. The Delaware change, even though the poll just hit my charts today, probably represents a change that happened several weeks ago after the VP selection, or maybe even no significant change at all given the state was right on the line anyway and there are only two polls. In New Mexico the state “dipped below the line” to be a swing state, but only for a couple of days. It is right on the edge of “Lean Obama” and “Weak Obama” and that could be random fluctuations too.

Bounces typically last a couple of weeks. It takes a little bit longer for state polls to catch up. Watch carefully what happens over the next week or so. If there is a real retreat from the McCain bounce, we should start to be able to see bigger changes. But it is not there yet. For the moment, the pattern is still major McCain gains since the conventions.

A lot of polls today (as there are most days now) but only one small change in status. Once again it is a move in McCain’s direction.

South Dakota (3 ev): McCain’s lead in South Dakota grows to over 10%, moving the state from “Weak McCain” to “Strong McCain”. South Dakota has been very sparsely polled. Today’s poll is actually only the fifth of this election cycle. So my “last five poll average” actually includes every poll taken in the state this year. But with the data available, it does look like this state is very safe McCain territory at this point.

New Summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 319, Obama 219
Obama Best Case – Obama 328, McCain 210

If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – 269/269 ELECTORAL COLLEGE TIE

There has been some talk starting to percolate that perhaps McCain’s bounce has peaked at this point, and we’ll start seeing an Obama recovery. There are perhaps some hints at that in the national polling. But with the exception of New Mexico returning to “Weak Obama” status after a brief flirtation with being a swing state, Obama has had no other moves in his direction in my state level classifications since August 25th. A full three weeks ago at this point. If there is an end to the McCain bounce and a move back toward Obama again, it has not yet started to show itself in the state level polls.

Of course, generally with the lower frequency of state polls, it does take longer for changes to show up at that level. At least that is how it HAS been. But as polling levels have increased, that is getting less true, especially for swing states. As an example, for the last 6 days there has always been at least one poll of Ohio each day, sometimes two. With polling continuing at this level (and presumably actually accelerating as we approach the election) we should actually be able to start picking up changes in the state by state situation almost as quickly as the national polls show changes. And of course the state by state view is more meaningful than the popular vote views.

Bounces supposedly usually last around two weeks. We’re now in the second week. If the post-convention changes are going to start fading, we should start seeing it soon.

But we haven’t yet.