Four states change status today. Two move in McCain’s direction, two move in Obama’s direction. But only one of those four states is likely significant, and that one moves in Obama’s direction. The specifics, in order of electoral college influence:
Colorado (9 ev): Colorado has been one of the critical swing states. With the exception of a few days earlier this month, Colorado has always been on the Obama side of the fence, but for almost the whole election season it has been just barely on the Obama side. Today, for the first time since March, Obama’s lead in the state moves above 5%. This makes this a “Weak Obama” state rather than a “Lean Obama” state and means the state is no longer too close to call. It might be vulnerable yet to strong campaigning or major events, but at the moment it is safe to color blue.
South Carolina (8 ev): One of the states that a few months ago Obama hoped to be able to turn blue. That has now completely evaporated as McCain’s lead now moves over 10% in the last five poll average. South Carolina is now “Solid McCain”.
Iowa (7 ev): Obama consolidates his lead. The five poll average now has Obama’s lead as more than 10%, so the state moves from “Weak Obama” to “Strong Obama”.
Maine (4 ev): Obama weakens a bit in Maine. His lead falls to less than 10%, moving the state from “Strong Obama” to “Weak Obama”. It is still a long way from transforming into a swing state though, so while this is movement away from Obama, it doesn’t really matter too much to McCain at the moment.
New Summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 327, Obama 211
Obama Best Case – Obama 378, McCain 160
If everybody gets their leans – 282 Obama, 256 McCain
All in all, today’s changes favor Obama. But we still have a wide open race with 13 swing states and 167 electoral votes which are essentially unpredictable. At the moment you do have to give Obama the advantage. But it is still a small one. It will take a few more states moving in Obama’s direction for this to actually start looking like a significant Obama lead.
