Electoral College: McCain Keeps Bumping

A lot of polls today (as there are most days now) but only one small change in status. Once again it is a move in McCain’s direction.

South Dakota (3 ev): McCain’s lead in South Dakota grows to over 10%, moving the state from “Weak McCain” to “Strong McCain”. South Dakota has been very sparsely polled. Today’s poll is actually only the fifth of this election cycle. So my “last five poll average” actually includes every poll taken in the state this year. But with the data available, it does look like this state is very safe McCain territory at this point.

New Summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 319, Obama 219
Obama Best Case – Obama 328, McCain 210

If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – 269/269 ELECTORAL COLLEGE TIE

There has been some talk starting to percolate that perhaps McCain’s bounce has peaked at this point, and we’ll start seeing an Obama recovery. There are perhaps some hints at that in the national polling. But with the exception of New Mexico returning to “Weak Obama” status after a brief flirtation with being a swing state, Obama has had no other moves in his direction in my state level classifications since August 25th. A full three weeks ago at this point. If there is an end to the McCain bounce and a move back toward Obama again, it has not yet started to show itself in the state level polls.

Of course, generally with the lower frequency of state polls, it does take longer for changes to show up at that level. At least that is how it HAS been. But as polling levels have increased, that is getting less true, especially for swing states. As an example, for the last 6 days there has always been at least one poll of Ohio each day, sometimes two. With polling continuing at this level (and presumably actually accelerating as we approach the election) we should actually be able to start picking up changes in the state by state situation almost as quickly as the national polls show changes. And of course the state by state view is more meaningful than the popular vote views.

Bounces supposedly usually last around two weeks. We’re now in the second week. If the post-convention changes are going to start fading, we should start seeing it soon.

But we haven’t yet.