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Two states flip today, one from Obama to McCain, and one from McCain to Obama. I caution however that both of these states are not just “leaning” swing states, they are both states where the margin is 1% or less. In other words, flipping from one side of the line to the other is not really that meaningful. They are both too close to call. In general, I try to make the same point about ALL of the “leaning states”. Yeah, one where the leading candidate is ahead by 4.9% might be a little better for the candidate than one where they are ahead by 0.1%. But really, the primaries showed us that a 5% lead can evaporate in a matter of days if the right set of events happen. And even the consensus average of pollsters can be off by more than that. So any lead under 5% should be considered too close to call. Anyway, the two states, in order by electoral college vote: Ohio (20 electoral votes): Flips from Leaning McCain to Leaning Obama. It flipped in the other direction just five days ago. Nevada (5 electoral votes): Flips from Leaning Obama to Leaning McCain. It flipped in the other direction just two days ago. New Summary: McCain Best Case – McCain 281, Obama 257 If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 306, McCain 232 As mentioned above, all of the lean states really could easily go either way. That is why they are lean states. So any observers should be cautioned to not pay all that much attention to the “everybody gets their leans” number. Rather, anything between the two best cases listed is quite possible. But this DOES at least look like the McCain momentum of the last month has been blunted. We’ll see over the next week if the trend continues and turns into a real “bounce” for Obama. Of course, the Republican convention is immediately after the Democratic convention, so any bounce may be short lived. Sam talks about:
This was inevitable, but shows that the rules do not matter at all, and makes the prospects of having any sort of control in the 2012 cycle virtually nil. Florida, Michigan Granted Full Voting Rights
Sigh.
There are four states that change categories today. One brings good news for McCain. But bucking recent trends, three are good news for Obama. In order of electoral college votes… Michigan, with 17 electoral votes, which two weeks ago weakened for a “Weak” Obama state into a “Leaning” Obama swing state, now moves back into “Weak” status as Obama’s lead once again breaks the 5% mark in the state. This makes Michigan no longer a swing state, which is potentially a very big deal for the Obama camp, as they don’t have to play as much defense there. Virginia, with 13 electoral votes, which 9 days ago moved from leaning Obama to leaning McCain, now moves back to leaning Obama. (Either way, it is a very close state and could very easily go either way… the movement here is from McCain being ahead by 0.2% to Obama being ahead by 0.4%.) Mississippi, with 6 electoral votes, sees McCain’s lead move from the “Weak McCain” category to “Strong McCain” as McCain’s lead grows to 10%. (This is the one state that is good news for McCain, but it will make no difference to the summary numbers, because it does not affect the swing states in any way.) Nevada, with 5 electoral votes, moves from leaning McCain, to leaning Obama. Once again it is important to note that which side of the line the state is on right now may not be really be very relevant. We are moving from McCain ahead by 0.6% to Obama ahead by 0.2%. Either way, this state is very close and could go either way. New summary: McCain Best Case – McCain 281, Obama 257 If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 291, McCain 247 The changes today can’t of course be attributed to a convention bounce, but perhaps Obama merely coming back from vacation and starting to campaign again was enough to start blunting the recent McCain momentum. Or… or it could just be random variation in polls pushing states that are right on the line between my categories back and forth over those lines. Complete fail to the Obama team on the “be first to know via text message thing”. Total crap. The text messages haven’t gone out yet, and anybody paying attention already knows. Fail, fail, fail. He should have sent out the page on Friday. Yup, tis Biden. All the news outlets are all over it now. (And I am home again.) He was my preferred Presidential candidate back pre-Iowa, although I never had any illusions that he had a chance. And I’ve always liked Biden a lot. And he can certainly do the attack dog thing. I expressed doubts back in June about Obama picking Biden though, because it did not mesh with the anti-Washington, change change change thing. Because after all, Biden is definitely a Washinton insider. He is not change. But he is good. And he is very competent. This will be fine. No links because I am posting from my phone. But ABC News is reporting that a Secret Service protective detail has been sent to Joe Bidens house. No text messages yet, but that probably means it is Biden. (via Brendan Loy) Now everybody is saying not Bayh (despite the bumper stickers) and not Kaine. So Biden? I am at home now for basically two weeks of vacation… well, except that I have a meeting I’m going to on Tuesday. And two conference calls on Wednesday. and I’m going in all day long on Friday for two planning meetings. And the following Friday I’ll go to work to catch up on email and such before I *really* come back the following Monday. But I’m basically on vacation… Woo! My plans:
And that will be that. Bumper Sticker Could Indicate Bayh Is Obama’s Veep
(via Drudge) |
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