I saw this delegate on CNN right after Hillary’s speech. I made a note to check YouTube for it later. I’m sure CNN intentionally found the most upset distraught Hillary dead ender they could find. But it still made for a compelling few minutes of television. And perhaps some insight into the subset of the Hillary folks who are not ready to fully support Obama.
|
CNN is reporting that Powlenty is canceling all sorts of things from his schedule (TV appearances and such). I guess this means that either it is him, or he just got told it isn’t him and he is going home to cry. Lifting from the comments on my Gustav Again post so more people will see it. My Curmudgeon’s Corner cohost Ivan is currently in Jamaica as Gustav approaches. He makes this report:
Editing a few minutes later to add: As of the 18 UTC NHC update, looks like for Western Jamaica where Ivan is, 70% to 80% chance of tropical storm force winds, about 7% chance of hurricane force winds. In New Orleans, 40% chance of tropical storm force winds, 7% chance of hurricane force winds. Supposedly the decision has been made. The person will be told today. It will be announced tomorrow morning. The choice will PROBABLY leak sometime today, possibly right around Obama’s speech, to take attention away from that. The current “top three” in buzz seem to be Mitt Romney, Tim Powlenty or Joe Lieberman. People don’t seem anywhere near as “sure” of this top three list as they did of the top three on the Dem side last week and other names continue to be mentioned as well. I’m still hoping for Carly Fiorina so I can see Ivan’s head explode.
When last we left Gustav, I was teasing my friend Ivan about going to Jamaica as it was approaching. But the odds had diminished to 30% to 50% that Jamaica would get tropical storm force winds, and less than a 10% chance of hurricane force winds. As of the 12 UTC charts from the NHC, in Jamaica the odds are now 80% to 100% for tropical storm force winds depending on which part of Jamaica you are talking about. For hurricane force winds those odds are 5% to 15%. Non-trivial. Worth worrying about, but still an 85% chance of NOT having hurricane force winds. Tropical storm force winds are pretty close to certain though, so I’m sure Ivan is in a bar somewhere enjoying it and watching the show. :-) Which brings us to New Orleans. For the last 48 hours, people have been getting increasingly agitated that New Orleans will get slammed by a major hurricane early next week. The “track” aims right at new Orleans. The mayor is rushing home. The Republicans are making contingency plans to adjust their convention schedule if needed, etc. But lets put it into perspective. This morning’s NHC update finally shows New Orleans with a greater than 5% chance of hurricane force winds in the next five days. Before that, the odds of New Orleans getting hit by hurricane force winds were less than 5%. (Tropical storm force winds are another story, but we’re not really worried about those, are we?) But yet people were getting all worked up. Now, I understand why given what happened a few years ago. But… Right now it looks like for New Orleans the chance of tropical storm force winds is about 35%. The odds of hurricane force winds are about 7%. Now, 7% is not zero. It is not something to ignore. If you are anywhere within the area with 5% or greater odds, you should be making proper preparations, including preparing to get the hell out if you are in a place like New Orleans. By the way, that 5% area also includes a lot more of Louisiana than New Orleans, the entire Mississippi and Alabama coastlines, western Cuba, Jamaica (as discussed) and the northern Yucatan in Mexico. Now, that means prepare and pay attention and be smart… NOT panic and act like the world is ending. In New Orleans there is still a 93% chance they will NOT get hurricane force winds in the next five days. NINETY THREE PERCENT. There is a 65% chance they won’t even get tropical storm force winds. Now, 7% can still happen. Um… about 7% of the time in this kind of situation it would. But really, people are getting a little ahead of themselves with the increasingly feverish talk about this. Now… if over the next few days that 7% turns into 15% turns into 25% turns into 50% turns into 70%… then that is a completely different story. A lot better than I had thought it would be. I really liked the family stuff at the beginning though. (Including the introduction by his son.) That stuff about the car crash gets me every time. That got my attention a lot more than the rest of the speech. Although it did build in energy as it went. And then Obama came out at the end. Expectations are really high for him tomorrow. We shall see. I had to watch Bill on delay (thank you C-Span!) because I had a work thing while it was live. And I admit, I sort of multi-tasked while watching it too, so didn’t pay full attention. My rough impression was that he said what he was expected to say and needed to say, but I didn’t get all roused by his speech or anything. For the moment I’ll stick with the fact that the only speeches worth listening to so far have been Kennedy’s, Michelle Obama’s and Schweitzer’s. I’m now trying to catch up to real time on my Tivo. Watching Kerry right now. I now remember why I didn’t like him four years ago. Bleh. At this point I’m not all that hyped about Biden. Maybe Obama will really bring it home tomorrow. But so far this has been very blah. [Edit 3:21 UTC – Oh yeah, and Hillary. I forgot already, but hers was great too.] … was allowed to go off alone to walk down to grandmother Bullard’s I was directed on the road in particular. I should say it was June. When I had gone about three fourths of a mile, there were some young cattle forward of me grazing side of the way, and as soon as I come up to them they would start and run ahead as if I was driving them. I tried my best to get by them, but no use they kept advance. We came to a log house, the door was open, and the floor of the houses to be the same height of the street; so in the door went two or three of these young cattle, probably yearlings, instantly an elderly lady came driving them out with a good deal of energy. Spying me she came up and wanted to know “Whose boy I was?” Then she piled the words on to me, she would send word to my father, on driving cattle into her house. I kept moving along carefully expecting every moment she would pounce onto me, and whether she would give me the most extreme of punishment I had seen or read of or of a milder type – anyhow my happiness was getting to a very low ebb as I trudged along to my destination. Finally I succeeded in getting to the gate of the yard leading to the house, then I saw my Uncle Marcus one and a half years older than myself, as soon as I got to him I put my arm around him and the flood of tears, that had been kept in waiting broke loose, and when Mark inquired, “What was the matter?” I was perfectly unintelligible in my report. Mark took me into his mother’s room, my grandmother took me close to her to find out what had happened, after I knew I was safe I told all, then she espoused my cause very strongly, she would see about old Mrs. Halsey, she would send Cullen up there and he would carry me home. Of course I had found friends, and the terrors of the future punishment faded away. Mark and I went fishing down a brook that had quantities of horn dase and shiners, which grandmother served up for our dinner in fine style. So my visit came to joyful end being carried to my home by my kind Uncle the Doctor. At another time cannot remember exact date but it was warm weather I had been up at the clothing works where my uncle finished cloth, when I looked out the window saw an old lady passing along knitting as she walked. It was mostly descending in the grade, after a bit I went toward home, pretty quick I saw some yarn on the ground moving slightly; and as far as I could see either direction was this yarn. Then I thought of the woman knitting, and as I knew what way she was passing, I ran to find her. She had passed through both bridges and was going up a hill and had just discovered that she had dropped her ball of yarn, as the rise of the ground made more exertion to carry the thread she was working at. Then Aunt Hitty turned around and retraced her steps to recover her goods. As the two bridges were three hundred feet in length and the rocky island one hundred feet she must have unwound nearly four hundred feet! There were several noticed this incident, and the quotation was often uttered “Aunt Hitty Sanford spinning street yarn.” As I reflect am pretty sure from that circumstance which was noticed by several before the yarn was finally rewound came the always as not pleasant reminder. She was spinning street yarn. On the Rocky Island when I was a boy were the ruins of several industries. For some reason when I was a small boy two old people told me some early history. My finding some s???s of timber imbeded in the ground below the clothing works. So I inquired of Enoch Sprague? To satisfy my curiosity he went with me to show where such and such buildings stood. Afterwards Isreal Marsh confirmed the fact. Just below the clothing works was a forge for hammering cut nails, as far as I can find outthe first ever cut by a machine. They were cut out of the plate which were wide enough for the length of the nail; and the head of the nail was all on one side or rather the edge. In the old plank houses in Quaker Village these nails were used and in later years about 1869, I found the same pattern of nail in the Van Schai? house in Lansingburg, N.Y., as the roof from which I removed in the shingles to replace with slate, the roof then showed that of the several roofs that had been placed. First the hand made nail, then the pattern from the Weybridge Mill. Down the stream a little farther was the distillery. Where cider brandy was made, that would make the drinker forget their trouble, but when they recovered their senses; their woes would look more unsurmountable. This distillery was carried by William Sanford and his wife Mahittable and I was told by an old resident in my youththat he had seen both husband and wife to far gone in the exhilerating influences of its products that no business could be done with them. This business of distilling was abandoned after a few years and Wm. Sanford made pearlash, “salaratus”, from the ashes he gathered in the neighborhood. I can recollect the price per. lb. when he brought the article to our house, fifteen cents, but its strength was such that a pound lasted quite a while. (The full diary will be located here when complete.) And the Democrats now have a nominee. Officially. By acclamation. Without finishing the roll call. At Clinton’s request. Last numbers were 1549 Obama, 341 Clinton. (All the votes submitted earlier in writing will eventually be counted it seems, just not in the roll call.) Anyway, there it is. And here we go… Here comes Hillary. |
||
