Gustav Again

When last we left Gustav, I was teasing my friend Ivan about going to Jamaica as it was approaching. But the odds had diminished to 30% to 50% that Jamaica would get tropical storm force winds, and less than a 10% chance of hurricane force winds.

As of the 12 UTC charts from the NHC, in Jamaica the odds are now 80% to 100% for tropical storm force winds depending on which part of Jamaica you are talking about. For hurricane force winds those odds are 5% to 15%. Non-trivial. Worth worrying about, but still an 85% chance of NOT having hurricane force winds. Tropical storm force winds are pretty close to certain though, so I’m sure Ivan is in a bar somewhere enjoying it and watching the show. :-)

Which brings us to New Orleans. For the last 48 hours, people have been getting increasingly agitated that New Orleans will get slammed by a major hurricane early next week. The “track” aims right at new Orleans. The mayor is rushing home. The Republicans are making contingency plans to adjust their convention schedule if needed, etc.

But lets put it into perspective.

This morning’s NHC update finally shows New Orleans with a greater than 5% chance of hurricane force winds in the next five days. Before that, the odds of New Orleans getting hit by hurricane force winds were less than 5%. (Tropical storm force winds are another story, but we’re not really worried about those, are we?) But yet people were getting all worked up.

Now, I understand why given what happened a few years ago. But…

Right now it looks like for New Orleans the chance of tropical storm force winds is about 35%. The odds of hurricane force winds are about 7%.

Now, 7% is not zero. It is not something to ignore. If you are anywhere within the area with 5% or greater odds, you should be making proper preparations, including preparing to get the hell out if you are in a place like New Orleans. By the way, that 5% area also includes a lot more of Louisiana than New Orleans, the entire Mississippi and Alabama coastlines, western Cuba, Jamaica (as discussed) and the northern Yucatan in Mexico. Now, that means prepare and pay attention and be smart… NOT panic and act like the world is ending.

In New Orleans there is still a 93% chance they will NOT get hurricane force winds in the next five days. NINETY THREE PERCENT.

There is a 65% chance they won’t even get tropical storm force winds.

Now, 7% can still happen. Um… about 7% of the time in this kind of situation it would.

But really, people are getting a little ahead of themselves with the increasingly feverish talk about this.

Now… if over the next few days that 7% turns into 15% turns into 25% turns into 50% turns into 70%… then that is a completely different story.