This is definitely now a trend in McCain’s direction. Obama’s lead in Michigan (in my last five poll average) now falls below 5%. This makes Michigan into a “Lean Obama” state rather than a “Weak Obama” state. This makes it a swing state, and one that could really easily go either way. Michigan has 17 electoral votes. More than any swing states other than Florida and Ohio. So this is very important. Michigan is a big deal.

Without Michigan, McCain had a whole raft of states that he HAD to win in order to get to the 270 mark. With Michigan in play, we now have only Florida as a MUST WIN for McCain. The others McCain can potentially lose and still win… if he can pull of Michigan.

Obama is still in a strong position, but without Michigan categorized as a “safe” state, it is looking a bit less strong than it was.

In the summary, McCain’s best case improves.

Current Summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 298, Obama 240
Obama Best Case – Obama 381, McCain 157

If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 306, McCain 232

We’ve been talking on Curmudgeon’s Corner for quite awhile now about how McCain needed to start actually showing up to play the game. Although he is still behind, I think McCain has now showed up and is starting to play. Mainly through negative ads that looked desperate to start with… but look like they might actually be having an effect in McCain’s favor in some critical states.

Of course we have both conventions coming up pretty soon. And there is more news of all sorts every day. This can still be very volatile. It will be interesting to see if McCain can build these handful of reversals into any real momentum, and if that momentum will be able to persist through the conventions.