Obama’s lead in New Hampshire based on the last 5 polls in the state slips to less than 5%, bringing the state from “Weak Obama” to “Lean Obama”… and making New Hampshire once again a swing state. A five point lead is nothing. If the right things hit in a news cycle, a five point lead can evaporate in days, faster than polls can track it. So New Hampshire is very much in play for McCain once again.

Now, New Hampshire is small. Only four electoral votes. But this is important because this is the first time since May 2nd… almost 3 months ago… that a “Weak Obama” state has slipped back into the leaning swing state category. (Interestingly enough, it was New Hampshire back then too.)

So for the first time in quite a long time, McCain starts to improve his “best case” scenario where he gets every one of the swing states. Is this an indicator that Obama’s long bounce is finally over, and things will start tightening again as we head into the last three months of the campaign? Or is this just a soon to be reversed blip? We’ll see over the next few weeks.

Meanwhile, in Mississippi, Obama gains ground as McCain’s lead falls under 10%, moving the state from “Strong McCain” to “Weak McCain”. Still a long way from being a swing state though.

Current Summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 281, Obama 257
Obama Best Case – Obama 389, McCain 149

If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 306, McCain 232

Assuming each candidate wins each of their Strong and Weak states (and Obama gets DC)… Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri and Colorado are still MUST WIN states for McCain. He needs to get all seven to win. If Obama wins in any one of those swing states, he wins the Presidency.

PS: Will someone please do a poll in DC, so I can stop having to give the DC disclaimer. :-)

On July 9th we had an update that just BARELY moved Florida out of the swing state status by increasing McCain’s lead in my five point average to exactly 5%. (I call swing states the states where the candidate in the lead is ahead by LESS than 5%.) Well, a new poll today pulls McCain’s lead in Florida back under 5% (to 3% actually). And so Florida moves from “Weak McCain” to “Lean McCain” and once again Florida is looking like a swing state.

Summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 277, Obama 261
Obama Best Case – Obama 389, McCain 149

If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 306, McCain 232

Florida is a big state (27 electoral votes) so the status of Florida is a big deal.

At this point, assuming that each candidate were to indeed win all the states where they are currently ahead by more than 5%, we are left with 11 swing states. Eight of them currently lean McCain (Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, South Carolina, Nevada, Montana and North Dakota) and three of them lean to Obama (Ohio, Virginia and Colorado). With just the states he is ahead by more than 5% in (plus DC) Obama is only 6 electoral college votes away from winning. So he only needs to win ONE of the three states he is ahead in right now to win.

Meanwhile, for McCain, out of the swing states NINE of them are now “must win”. (He can afford to lose Montana and South Dakota but that is it.) He has to get ALL of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, South Carolina and Nevada in order to win. If he loses ANY of those states, then Obama wins. And Obama is ahead in three of those states.

As I’ve been saying… if McCain wants to actually try to win, rather than just try to avoid a landslide, he needs to start doing something… or Obama needs to start majorly screwing up. McCain should be putting major effort into Ohio, Virginia and Colorado. He needs all three of them, and Obama has the edge right now. He needs to start pulling those back in his direction.

Of course, it is still summer. Many people won’t start paying attention “for real” until the fall. So there could well be (actually probably will be) major changes to how things look as we get later in the season. But McCain can’t just take the summer off and expect to recover in September or whatnot.

McCain’s lead in South Dakota drops to less than 10%, so the state moves from “Strong McCain” to “Weak McCain”. It is only 3 electoral votes, and it is still a long way from McCain actually losing the lead, but still… the trends are still moving against McCain. One would assume that at some point this Obama “bounce” has to peak, but it doesn’t seem to have happened yet.

The summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 277, Obama 261
Obama Best Case – Obama 362, McCain 176

If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 306, McCain 232