This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon

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Cashless

I have been thinking about this for awhile, and I mentioned this to Brandy not that long ago, but I recently realized that I spend a lot of my time without any cash on me these days. Not any. Zero. Zilch. Nada. Not even any pocket change. At work I pay for lunch and snacks using my employee id card which directly deducts from my paycheck. Most major purchases are online purchases these days. And in almost all other cases where I am out and about and spending money, I use my debit card. Occationally a credit card, but very rarely. Usually the debit card. I almost NEVER use cash any more.

For awhile I was reluctant to use the debit card for purchases under $20 or so and I’d use cash. But I no longer feel that compulsion. I’ll use my debit card to pay for a $1 purchase without thinking twice about it.

There are some places that are still cash only places, but generally I don’t shop there. Having to use cash is a pain. I’ll have to go to an ATM and make sure I have the needed amount of green actually in my pocket.

I used to always keep a certain amount of cash with me at all times, and if I was low I would go to the ATM and get more. But I slowly started feeling less and less urgent about it. I would run out of cash and not bother to replenish my supply until I *needed* to because I wanted to buy something somewhere that did not take plastic. But this is very rare these days.

As I was thinking about it recently, I realized I have gone weeks at a time with nothing in my wallet except receipts. I just don’t have very much need for actual paper cash any more. Money, yes. Of course. But not in the form of bits of paper or pieces of metal that I carry around with me.

You know the last thing that really got me on a regular basis? Vending machines. I needed that dollar bill to get a coke or a bag of chips. But once I didn’t have cash with me regularly, I’d want chips or whatnot and not have any cash. So I’d head to the ATM. But that WOULD NOT HELP. Because I’d get out however much money, but it would ALL BE IN TWENTIES. And guess what, the vending machines where I tend to be don’t take twenties. So I’d actually have to go somewhere and buy something with a twenty dollar bill, just to get change so I could use the vending machine.

Guess what the result of that was? I use the vending machines much much less than I used to. And that isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

So anyway, as I sit here looking at my empty wallet, and realizing that it may be quite awhile until something comes up where I *need* to get those little pieces of paper out of the ATM, I am definitely thinking the day is not actually that far off where the use of paper and metal to pay for things will be very rare. It may take it awhile to die completely, but it is coming.

I think right now the longest I have gone with no cash is a few weeks. I bet you soon that will grow to months. Then maybe years.

The complete extinction of “cash” in the old paper and metal forms may take many decades yet. But I bet you that by the time a kid born today is a teenager, they will view spending of paper money and coins as a quaint antiquity. Hell, I bet a lot of teenagers today already think that. Hell, I kind of think that too.

We just have to wait for the rest of the world to catch up.

The Real Dream Ticket(s)

I’m all for it. Add the joint town halls that have been discussed, and I’ll be quite happy.

Fever Dream Tickets
(Hendrik Hertzberg, The New Yorker)

One thing Obama and McCain have in common is that they each have a Vice-President problem. In both cases the choice is fraught with peril. Do you go for someone who strengthens your base or extends your appeal? Do you try for balance or amplification? How do you avoid saddling yourself with one ingrate and a dozen disgruntled spurnees?
The solution is obvious. Obama should ask McCain to be his running mate. McCain should ask Obama to be his. And both should say yes.
A campaign pitting an Obama-McCain ticket against a McCain-Obama ticket would absolutely guarantee a general-election campaign that would be about The Issues and nothing but The Issues.

(via Andrew Sullivan)

A return to the original formulation that the VP would be whoever came in second in electoral votes. I love it! The only thing better would be to go back to the electors actually being real people who made real decisions rather than just being appointed based on the results of some widespread general election and rubber stamping the results of the popular vote in each state.

Alas, none of that will ever happen. Quite sad.

More Delegates to Obama

The rush continues. Two more Edwards delegates move to Obama. So do two Clinton delegates. Plus Obama gets another superdelegate. Net for today, Obama gains 5, Clinton and Edwards each lose two.

The new delegate count is: Obama 1904, Clinton 1717, Edwards 9

In percent terms that is: Obama 52.5%, Clinton 47.3%, Edwards 0.2%

2026 delegates are needed to win.

There are 420 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama needs 122 more delegates to win.

Clinton needs 309 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that means:

Obama needs 29.0% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 33.7% before WV.)

Clinton needs 73.6% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 70.8% before WV.)

All the Good Stupid Ideas

Why don’t I ever think of things like this?

A blog of things that look like ducks.

(via Andrew Sullivan)

Again and Again

This has been going around for a few days now, but I just actually watched it for the first time a few minutes ago. It is a music video for a song which is all made up of the guy doing stuff in various windows on his Mac.

(via Lifehacker)

The Matthews/James Thing

I’m sure everybody has seen this by now, but I made a resolution recently that whenever I think about emailing something I see online to just one or two people, I should post it instead.

This is the clip of Chris Matthews and Kevin James from about a day ago. James was on Hardball to defend the President’s comments about appeasement and such he made in Israel. Matthews decided to try to get James to describe just what Neville Chamberlain had done wrong that Bush was trying to imply was similar to what certain others (unnamed, but everybody took it to mean Obama) are promoting now.

It gets good about two minutes in.

(via Balloon Juice)

As they say… Pwned!

Electoral College: South Dakota Strengthens for McCain

New info on new polls from South Dakota moves the state all the way from “Leaning McCain” to “Strong McCain”. This essentially takes the state out of play for Obama, weakening his “Best Case Scenario”.

Current Summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 334, Obama 204
Obama Best Case – Obama 327, McCain 211

And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – McCain 302, Obama 236

Today’s Obama Delegate Haul

Many many weeks after it would have made any real difference, or shown anything beyond a characterless need to attach oneself to the person who will win anyway, Edwards endorsed Obama. Today 8 out of Edward’s 19 delegates announced they will vote for Obama at the convention. In addition, Obama got 7 more superdelegates today. This makes Obama’s total delegate gain for today 15 delegates. Clinton got one. Ouch.

So, this now puts us here:

The new delegate count is: Obama 1899, Clinton 1719, Edwards 11

In percent terms that is: Obama 52.3%, Clinton 47.4%, Edwards 0.3%

2026 delegates are needed to win.

There are 421 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama needs 127 more delegates to win.

Clinton needs 307 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that means:

Obama needs 30.2% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 33.7% before WV.)

Clinton needs 72.9% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 70.8% before WV.)

More Unlikely Drama

I had briefly thought about this a few weeks ago, but dismissed it as a serious possibility at the time.

If Clinton Wants VP, Obama Can’t Stop Her
(Bob Beckel, RealClearPolitics)

It’s all over. Obama will have about 54% of the delegates and Clinton 46%. (I know there are a few delegates missing. Some are Edwards, a few uncommitted, and a few refusing to decide- another wash). Hillary Clinton will have come up short by 150 votes. But this isn’t horseshoes. That said she still comes in a very close second, which puts her among the closest runner-ups in Democratic Party history.

So Barack Obama is free to pick a running mate? Not so fast. Her losing margin of 150 is only 19% of the super delegates at the convention. Most of the 795 super delegates have been put under enormous pressure by both candidates for months. For those that chose Obama the decision was an especially painful one both personally and politically.

Just consider for a moment the final phone call with Bill Clinton when the super delegate had to tell him he or she had decided to go with Obama. Clinton,” It’s time to make a decision. Hillary needs you and I need you. We’ve been through a lot together. When you needed me I was there, now we need you”.

Super delegate, “Mr. President, this is the hardest thing I’ve ever had to do, but I’m going with Obama because (whatever). Ask me for anything else Mr. President, but I’ve got to do this”. Clinton, “I’m very disappointed and personally hurt, but do what you think you have to do. So long.”

Now imagine its June 4th and Clinton calls again. Clinton, “I know Obama has enough votes to win, but I wanted you to know Hillary has decided to run for vice president at the convention. You know there are two roll call votes at the convention: first president then for vice president. I know you are voting for Obama for president. Fine, but I want your commitment to vote for Hillary for vice president.”

(via Wonkette)

Basically, the deal is this, while for many many election cycles, it has been the case that the Presidential nominee picks who they want and the convention rubber stamps it, it is indeed actually two separate and completely independent votes. There have been times in history where the Presidential candidate didn’t even bother stating a preference for VP, they just threw it open for the convention to decide. But even if the presidential candidate does state a preference, the delegates are under no obligation to honor it other than tradition and the fact they like their candidate and want to respect their wishes. This is true for even pledged delegates and as the author points out, superdelegates will feel even more free…. especially those who remained uncommitted for a very long time and are now basically just going for Obama because they want to pick the winner.

All it would take is a small number of Obama delegates (pledged or super) to decide that even if Obama picks someone else, even if they strongly support Obama for President, they want Clinton to be VP, and that would be that… even if Obama doesn’t want it. And the numbers are close enough that Clinton probably could peel off enough Obama supporters to do this… if she really wanted it and applied enough pressure in the right places.

But would Hillary really go this route? Can you imagine just what chaos there would be if Hillary tried to force herself onto the ticket against Obama’s wishes?? Can you imagine how the campaign would look between the convention and the general election if there was open hostility and resentment between the Presidential and VP candidates?

No, this will not happen. Even Hillary is not that Machiavellian.

Um, OK, maybe she is. Every time someone underestimates what level she can go to, they are proven wrong.

Perhaps this article is actually a coordinated back channels message to Obama threatening to do this if Obama doesn’t pick her to try to pressure him into doing so. But she wouldn’t actually do it would she?

Would she?

And really, does she truly WANT to be Vice President under Obama? Why would she? I can’t imagine that would be a fun place for her.

But you never know.

Electoral College: North Dakota flips to McCain

Just got info on a new poll in North Dakota. It moves my average for the state from “Leaning Obama” to “Leaning McCain”. These leaning states just keep drifting from Obama to McCain lately. Of the 123 electoral votes where one candidate is leading by less than 5% only 29 electoral votes are on the Obama side of the fence at the moment.

Current Summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 334, Obama 204
Obama Best Case – Obama 330, McCain 208

And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – McCain 302, Obama 236