iPods, iPhones, laptops and other digital devices could be seized by customs officials worldwide under a new top-secret copyright policing deal being worked out between the G8 nations, reports claim.
Nations including Canada, the US and various European states (including the UK, which sits on the G8) are secretly agreeing a new pan-global state police deal in which information held on iPods and other devices could be subject to investigation by customs officials tasked with a new role, as copyright police.
Dubbed the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (ACTA), signatory nations will form an international coalition against copyright infringement.
The deal’s up for discussion at the next G8 meeting in Tokyo in July, It creates rules and regulations to govern private copying and copyright laws, and posits the founding of an international regulator, “that would turn border guards and other public security personnel into copyright police,†reports Ottawa Citizen, the National Post and other Canadian media outlets.
What, then, is Hillary playing at? I have a theory. She appears to be racheting up her rhetoric to the point where, if the Rules & Bylaws Committee does anything other than seat the Florida and Michigan delegations with full voting rights and in complete accordance with the rogue primary results, she can declare that decision an anti-democratic outrage that must be remedied, irrespective of its significance to the nomination battle, and thus use it as an excuse to keep fighting all the way to the convention, even after Obama secures the nomination by any and all mathematical standards (whether the magic number is 2,025, 2,210, or something in between). In this scenario, Hillary would most likely “suspend” her campaign, but refrain from endorsing Obama or “releasing” her delegates, and then lie in wait for the next three months, hoping some political calamity befalls him in the mean time, at which point she can sweep in like a “white knight” and take the nomination away from him.
There have been conflicting reports on this the last 48 hours or so, and denials of about every one of those reports. But personally, I hope this one is true:
The Field can now confirm, based on multiple sources, something that both campaigns publicly deny: that Senator Clinton has directly told Senator Obama that she wants to be his vice presidential nominee, and that Senator Obama politely but straightforwardly and irrevocably said “no.†Obama is going to pick his own running mate based on his own criteria and vetting process.
On my last day in São Paulo, the good people we were working with on an upcoming Portuguese version of Giz with took us to some nightclub with an open roof and lots of beautiful younger people dancing and making out. Anyhow, here’s the gadget party of this story: There was a band there playing called Inimigos da HP, or Enemies of HP. Yes, that HP.
About two weeks ago, I was thinking about this exact clip with regards to Hillary. Glad to see someone went ahead and put it together. Although I think they should have used actors with British accents rather than actual clips from Hillary. Oh well!
Obama does seem to be on a roll. With the new polls today, three states move in Obama’s direction. The most critical is Ohio, which now moves from Leaning McCain to Leaning Obama. Ohio has 20 electoral votes, so this is a huge shift. It is enough to put Obama in the lead (barely) in the situation where you give both candidates all of the states where they are ahead by even a tiny bit. The lead is less than 5% though… actually less than 1%… so really this is a state that very much could easily go either way. But with all the leaning states (and DC) Obama is once again in the lead.
At the same time, Obama strengthens his lead in Pennsylvania. He is now ahead in Pennsylvania by more than 5%. This makes me take the possibility of McCain winning Pennsylvania out of his best case scenario. With Pennsylvania being a pretty large 21 electoral votes though, I fully expect McCain to work hard to bring this state back into play.
Finally, Virginia, which had only strengthened to a more than 5% lead for McCain a few days ago, weakens again and comes back into play as a leaning state, therefore strengthening my “best case” model for Obama.
Current Summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 313, Obama 225
Obama Best Case – Obama 333, McCain 205
And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 277, McCain 261
Now, note we still have 11 states and 105 electoral votes in states where the leading candidate is ahead by less than 5%. Either candidate could easily win by pulling the right mix of those states. Right now, all of this basically just means everything is completely up in the air.
Not to mention, this is of course a snapshot of NOW. (Actually, now and the recent past, as many states have very sparse polling, sometimes less than one poll a month.) And between now and the convention, we’ll have, as one pundit whose name I can’t remember right now called it, two or three “geologic ages” in the state of the race. Things will happen, the candidates will react to them. VPs will be selected. Candidates will make mistakes. Candidates will actively start campaigning in the battleground states. General election TV ads will start airing. Etc.
We have a long way to go. And certainly from this far out, it is completely wide open still.
Having said that, Obama has had a very good last few days in terms of the state by state polls. We shall soon see if this is a long term trend, or if it quickly gets reversed. This is the first time Obama has been ahead since April 20th. And the first time since April 15th that Obama’s best case was better than McCain’s best case.
Looking back though, in the time since we first had polls in all 50 states back on March 8th, Obama has been in the lead with the “all the leans” metric two other times. Neither time lasted more than a week.
So we shall see. My initial prediction is that this time will last longer and be the beginning of a trend in Obama’s direction now that we essentially have a nominee (even if Hillary continues to fight).
I think we’ll see more leaning states flip to Obama soon. (I’ll go out on a limb and say Michigan will flip soon.) And we’ll see some states strengthen for Obama and several more weaken in their McCain support and come back into play for Obama.
My prediction was… Clinton 58, Obama 45. Woo! Go me!
Today’s batch from KY/OR was an even split, 2 for Clinton, 2 for Obama. In addition today Obama picks up one more super delegate. So over all for today, Obama up 3, Clinton up 2.
New stats:
Delegate count is: Obama 1965, Clinton 1779, Edwards 9
In percent terms that is: Obama 52.4%, Clinton 47.4%, Edwards 0.2%
2026 delegates are needed to win.
There are 297 delegates yet to be determined.
Obama needs 61 more delegates to win.
Clinton needs 247 more delegates to win.
In percentage terms, that means:
Obama needs 20.5% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 28.3% before KY/OR.)
Clinton needs 83.2% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 74.4% before KY/OR.)
In the last couple of updates, I’ve also shown stats for what the situation would be if Clinton got her dream result and had Florida and Michigan fully seated based on the current results. I won’t do that every day since it is not the situation today, and is a very unlikely result. I just give it occasionally to show that even if that were to happen, Clinton would need to be getting significantly more than 60% of the remaining delegates to be on pace to catch up and win. This would be a DRAMATIC change from the 47.4% of the delegates she has been pacing at so far. And every day where she doesn’t get that margin in the delegates… which is almost every day… the percentage she needs continues to go up. She is not doing what she needs to be doing to win EVEN IF she gets what she wants in Michigan and Florida… which she won’t.
In any case, if and when there is a revision to the policy on Michigan and Florida that officially changes the number of delegates required for a win, then I will of course make adjustments here. This may well happen on the 31st. (And even after that what is decided may be appealed and have the possibility of changing again later.) But in the mean time, the number needed to win is 2026.
When Yosuke the parrot flew out of his cage and got lost, he did exactly what he had been taught _ recite his name and address to a stranger willing to help.
Police rescued the African grey parrot two weeks ago from a neighbor’s roof in the city of Nagareyama, near Tokyo. After spending a night at the station, he was transferred to a nearby veterinary hospital while police searched for clues, local policeman Shinjiro Uemura said.
He kept mum with the cops, but began chatting after a few days with the vet.
“I’m Mr. Yosuke Nakamura,” the bird told the veterinarian, according to Uemura. The parrot also provided his full home address, down to the street number, and even entertained the hospital staff by singing songs.
She couldn’t talk, but I still miss Zuri very much. :-(
An update in Indiana continues a positive streak for Obama. The state moves from “Weak McCain” to “Lean McCain” putting McCain’s lead at less than 5%, and putting it in play for Obama.
Current Summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 334, Obama 204
Obama Best Case – Obama 320, McCain 218
And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – McCain 281, Obama 257
We now have 99 of 103 delegates for KY/OR. At this point 56 for Clinton, 43 for Obama. That is 56.6% for Clinton. I had predicted 56.3%. But she needed 74.4% to be on pace for a win, and she didn’t come close.
Of the delegates above, today’s update included 8 for Obama and 5 for Clinton. In addition, Clinton picked up 2 superdelegates and Obama picked up 1 superdelegate. Today’s net is therefore 9 for Obama and 7 for Clinton.
New stats:
Delegate count is: Obama 1962, Clinton 1777, Edwards 9
In percent terms that is: Obama 52.3%, Clinton 47.4%, Edwards 0.2%
2026 delegates are needed to win.
There are 302 delegates yet to be determined.
Obama needs 64 more delegates to win.
Clinton needs 249 more delegates to win.
In percentage terms, that means:
Obama needs 21.2% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 28.3% before KY/OR.)
Clinton needs 82.5% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 74.4% before KY/OR.)
Based on the limited polls available so far from Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota, Obama will probably pick up about 38 delegates from those states. Which means he only needs to pick up about 26 more superdelegates to clinch the nomination under the existing rules. (Meaning no Florida and no Michigan.)
Now, the situation of Florida and Michigan may well change on the 31st when the rules committee meets. And Clinton yesterday mentioned the possibility of appealing to the credentials committee and taking this all the way to the convention if she does not get the result she wants.
If Clinton gets her best case result (full seating of Michigan and Florida based on the existing elections) we would have:
Delegate Count: Obama 2041, Clinton 1970, Edwards 20
Delegates that would be needed to win: 2209
There would be 387 delegates yet to be determined.
Obama would need 168 more delegates to win.
Clinton would need 239 more delegates to win.
In percentage terms, that would mean:
Obama would need 43.4% of the remaining delegates to win.
Clinton would need 61.8% of the remaining delegates to win.
Again, that is with Clinton’s best case result… which is highly unlikely. But even with that best case, she would need to be convincing a significantly larger fraction of superdelegates than she has been lately.
Oops, almost forgot. McCain picks up 40 delegates and Paul picks up 4. New Republican totals: McCain 1500, Huckabee 275, Romney 255, Paul 30.
