On the drive home from work I was listening to CNN. There were all sorts of people arguing about what would be “a win” for Obama or Clinton. Is a win just a win? Does Obama *need* to win Indiana? What sort of margin in North Carolina does what for which candidate… etc, etc, etc.
One thing to remember, this is ALL BULLSHIT.
There is one number. It can be computed simply. Clinton needs 62.0% of all the remaining delegates to win. If she gets more than that percentage of delegates tonight, then the is doing what she needs to in order to win. If she gets less than that percentage, then an already hard road becomes even harder.
That is it. That is what the bar is. Any other bar is meaningless. The popular vote doesn’t matter. Who wins each one of these states does not matter. It is all about the delegate count. Is Clinton getting enough to win? (Or, if you want to look at it from the flip side, is Obama getting enough to win? He needs 41.1% of the remaining delegates to win.)
It really is that simple. Looking at any other measure is just looking at meaningless babble. Look at the delegates. Does she get 62.0% of them tonight? Or does she not?
That’s it. It is that simple.
CNN just called North Carolina for Obama as I was writing this. But it DOES NOT MATTER. Look at the delegates. Only the delegates matter.
There have been no delegate estimates yet for the night, in either Indiana or North Carolina.
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