Really more an Obama weakening than a McCain strengthening, but regardless the end result is that with the latest updates, Ohio moves from “Leans McCain” to “Weak McCain” as McCain’s lead in the state grows to over 5%.

In terms of my summary, this makes Obama’s “best case” not quite as good as before, as Obama winning Ohio is no longer in the range of “quite possible” outcomes given current polling.

The last “good news” Obama had in terms of this state by state polling was back on March 26th. Since then everything has been good for McCain.

Current Summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 340, Obama 198
Obama Best Case – Obama 342, McCain 196

And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – McCain 283, Obama 255