A new poll drops Obama’s Iowa lead in my 5 poll average to under 10%, which moves Iowa from “Strong Obama” to “Weak Obama”. In my “range of possible outcomes” that I do, this doesn’t make a difference, as I only allow the “Leaning” states (less than 5% lead) to move back and forth, not the “Weak” states (lead between 5% and 10%). But it certainly is a sign that things in Iowa aren’t going in a direction Obama would like.
Current Summary:
McCain Best Case – McCain 340, Obama 198
Obama Best Case – Obama 362, McCain 176
And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – McCain 283, Obama 255
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