A Little More Math

Including both pledged delegates and superdelegates, there are 1376 delegates left to be determined. (As per CNN’s count.)

Clinton needs 756 of those in order to get the nomination. That is 54.9% of them.

Obama needs 647 of those in order to get the nomination. That is 47.0% of them.

Now, 55% still doesn’t seem quite impossible. That could be a doable margin, right? Well, it still represents a pretty big margin… one that would seem unlikely given how things have been going so far… but it isn’t like that number was 70% or anything.

So when you watch the results tonight… which actually will begin at 21 UTC… 4 PM Eastern… 1 PM Pacific… (Urgh, I’ll still be at work and have meetings. :-( )… if you want to know what is really going on, ignore the spin, ignore the popular vote… watch the delegates… is Clinton picking up more than 55% of the delegates? If so, she’s on a pace to win. If not, look at Obama. Is he picking up more than 47% of the delegates? If so HE is on a pace to win.

Those add up to more than 100% though… what is all that about… well, of course, that is the John Edwards effect. If the split is somewhere between Obama 45% Clinton 55% and Obama 47% Clinton 53%… then that means we are on pace to have the 26 delegates that belong to John Edwards being the deciding factor in this campaign.

And wouldn’t that be fun.

(Of course, the math above does not include either seating the existing Florida and Michigan delegates, or doing “do overs” in those states. For the former, Hillary would need to already be ahead coming into the convention, or Obama would have to be so far ahead that those delegations would not matter… so in either case it would not matter. For the latter… well, that would give a bit more flexibility to the scenarios… if Clinton really wants to drag this out, she should be pushing hard for the do-over options.)