This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon

Categories

Calendar

February 2008
S M T W T F S
 12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
242526272829  

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Green Airplanes Fly to Super Tuesday

Sam and Ivan talk about:

  • Ivan’s Death Flight
  • Carnival Nipples
  • Missing iPhones
  • Global Warming in School
  • Doubt, Policy and Truth in School
  • Ivan and Sam go light Green
  • Republicans and McCain
  • Dem Super Duper Tight Tuesday

1-Click Subscribe in iTunes

View in iTunes

Podcast XML Feed

Maine Caucus

It seems like nobody cares since it is only a few days before Super Tuesday, but results from Saturday’s Maine Republican caucuses are coming in now. With 68% reporting looks like Romney is running away with it. There are 18 delegates up for grabs in this caucus. I imagine that tomorrow I’ll have a delegate graph update for this which will show Romney closing the gap with McCain. Not that I think he’ll get anything out of it since nobody is paying attention for “momentum” and of the Super Tuesday states with polls out, Romney is only ahead in Massachusetts and Colorado… and MAYBE Georgia. He’s close in a few more states, but basically McCain is in a very strong position for Tuesday.

Anyway, looks like Romney will win Maine (although CNN hasn’t called it yet). I’m sure he is excited.

Goodbye Edwards

CNN finally adjusted the delegate counts to reflect Edwards being out of the race. He loses a bunch of delegates, but not all of them. Superdelegates obviously are free agents so now are uncommitted again. What happens to the other delegates varies by state. In many cases, the primaries and caucuses are just the first stage in the process, and if the process isn’t finished yet, then we end up with uncommitted delegates or delegates to other candidates eventually. In cases where the process is done, in most cases Edwards keeps his delegates. Of course, even then, the delegates are actual people and they may or may not end up voting for Edwards at the convention. This could be affected of course by if Edwards ever endorses. This is also affected by the fact that officially Edwards just “suspended” his campaign rather than ending it. If that status changes, the status of even more delegates changes.

In the mean time, despite all the talk about Edwards leaving potentially helping one candidate or the other, in the short term delegate race in percentage terms it helps Clinton more, as it widens the gap with Obama. Of course, in number of delegate terms, it stays the same. But I’d give the advantage to Hillary here. As a percent of delegates allocated, she is now almost as high as she has ever been.

Oh yeah, and on the Republican side, Guiliani’s two delegates go away. But since he had only 2… Ron Paul has three times that amount… it is just barely even noticeable on the charts.

Post-Copying Generatives

Exactly.

Better than Free
(Kevin Kelly, The Technium)

When copies are super abundant, they become worthless.

When copies are super abundant, stuff which can’t be copied becomes scarce and valuable.

When copies are free, you need to sell things which can not be copied.

Well, what can’t be copied?

There are a number of qualities that can’t be copied. Consider “trust.” Trust cannot be copied. You can’t purchase it. Trust must be earned, over time. It cannot be downloaded. Or faked. Or counterfeited (at least for long). If everything else is equal, you’ll always prefer to deal with someone you can trust. So trust is an intangible that has increasing value in a copy saturated world.

There are a number of other qualities similar to trust that are difficult to copy, and thus become valuable in this network economy. I think the best way to examine them is not from the eye of the producer, manufacturer, or creator, but from the eye of the user. We can start with a simple user question: why would we ever pay for anything that we could get for free? When anyone buys a version of something they could get for free, what are they purchasing?

From my study of the network economy I see roughly eight categories of intangible value that we buy when we pay for something that could be free.

In a real sense, these are eight things that are better than free. Eight uncopyable values. I call them “generatives.” A generative value is a quality or attribute that must be generated, grown, cultivated, nurtured. A generative thing can not be copied, cloned, faked, replicated, counterfeited, or reproduced. It is generated uniquely, in place, over time. In the digital arena, generative qualities add value to free copies, and therefore are something that can be sold.

(via Techmeme)

Then he goes on to outline eight different kinds of value people will pay for even after everybody eventually stops resisting that anything that can be copied, will be copied, will be widely distributed, and it will be free. DRM and lawsuits and making things illegal can only slow the tide, not stop it.

Anybody who plans to make money off “copyable” things in the 21st century should pay attention to this. This is the map to how to build a business that can succeed and thrive in a post-copying world.

All Hands 7

My 7th All Hands was yesterday. They are always fun.

The Line Goes Up, Makes Sam Happy

Charts to Watch

Pollster.com has added some new charts that are an excellent way of visualizing the state of the polls for Super Tuesday given the small number of polls and short time until people start voting. They provide a handy explanation of how to interpret this. Full size Democratic chart here and Republican chart here. The most recent versions, along with links to details of the polls in each state should be on the main page of pollster.com until Super Tuesday.

Bottom line… as of the latest polls, Obama and Romney both have a pretty steep uphill climb, and only a few days to make it happen. Obama seems to be going in the right direction pretty quickly though. Romney not so much.

12 Year Old Kid + Allowance Debit Card + Internet = ???

If you guessed huge roll of industrial strength bubble wrap, then you got it right!

(I couldn’t stop laughing when I got home and saw this waiting on the doorstep.)

Global Middle School Warming

This evening I spent what seemed like many hours trapped in the hell of a middle school symposium on global warming. Let me just say I left it with an overwhelming desire to immediately go out and buy the largest SUV I could find. Preferably a coal burning SUV that belched clouds of dark acid-rain causing fumes. That I would drive (alone, no carpooling) from here to Brazil while throwing non-biodegradable plastic bags out the window every few hundred feet.. Where I would then burn as many hundred acres of rain forest as I possibly could.

In more detail… there were student presentations (which was OK because they were kids and it was cute) and there was a Q&A period with local experts (which was really in need of an active moderator, because several of the panelists didn’t know when to shut up, or how to use a microphone).

But the big thing that bothered me the most was that the whole thing was as if everybody had watched “An Inconvenient Truth” and just accepted every sentence in it completely without any sense of doubt or questioning at all. Now, don’t get me wrong, I believe that most of the “factual” things in that movie and pushed by the global warming crowd are in fact very well supported by the current research on the subject. It is true that there is a strong scientific consensus at this point. There are questions around the edges of course, but there is consensus around the basic outline of what is going on.

Having said that, there is still no excuse for accepting it without question and not having a full examination of the potential counter arguments. Kids should be taught to be constantly questioning EVERYTHING and never taking anything at face value. At least in what I saw tonight, both with the adults and the children, there did not seem to be anything at all other than full throated global warming alarmism. No questioning. No doubt. No, this was just how it is. Period.

In general, show me anybody who is 100% sure they are right, and I can assure you, they are most likely wrong. The people who are serious and really know what is going on talk as much about the places where we DON’T know as the places where we do, and are constantly looking to refute their own arguments to find the holes in their logic. Knowing what you don’t know is much more important to wisdom than knowing what you know. Those people who act as if they know the certain truth… no matter what that truth is…. those are the ones you always want to be most careful of. Those who critique themselves and… to use a phrase used at my company… who are “vocally self-critical”… those are the ones you want to pay attention to.

In addition to the question of the FACTS of global warming (which again, I think are most likely true, I’m just disturbed by the lack of doubt or questioning of the premise at all) there was also a completely one sided view of the potential approaches for dealing with it, completely ignoring that there is very active debate on what is right and what is wrong there, and what is the proper balance between being eco-friendly and the impact on our economy and our way of life. And also even if we SHOULD do anything about it. There are people who don’t deny “climate change” is happening, yet believe that actively trying to “do something” about it would be counter productive.

And there might even be some good in global warming. Yes, some areas become hot and less hospitable. But vast areas in high latitudes may become MORE hospitable. And would a fully navigable Arctic ocean really be a bad thing? You would actually save quite a bit of oil by letting a lot of shipping go that route rather than having to go around the long way… And if the oceans rise a few feet and half of Florida gets submerged, would anybody REALLY miss it? People are adaptable. They can migrate. Would another migration to adapt to some climate change really be all bad?

Anyway…

The viewpoints expressed were 100% slanted toward the positions that the right way to “deal with” the problem is to modify the way we live, to make concessions of convenience or flexibility such as using canvas bags at the grocery or driving more efficient cars…. and more disturbing that these suggestions, which are fine as suggestions… the universal acceptance and promotion that government should be activist in legislating and restricting what people can do so as to help the environment. I’m fine with people deciding on their own that the right thing to do is X, Y or Z and doing it or convincing their friends to do it, or taking private actions to make it so other people might want to do it. (This is true even if I don’t think X, Y and Z are actually the right things to do.) But the second you make it a law that I *must* do it, then I get pissed. (Don’t get me started on mandatory recycling… I practice civil disobedience on that almost every day…. BECAUSE it is mandatory… I probably wouldn’t object to doing it on a voluntary basis.)

And here I was just getting increasingly annoyed, because it was so clear everything was oriented toward people sacrificing to make the world better, or making laws to force people to do what a certain group think is the right thing to do. There was very little talk about (for instance) eliminating the problem through dramatically advancing technology so we could reduce impact while NOT changing anybody’s way of living or forcing anybody to do things they don’t want to or which are more expensive… or of looking at solutions that involve interesting solutions like counteracting global warming by intentionally causing a controlled nuclear winter. Set off a couple hundred nukes in strategic places, we could solve global warming over night… but nobody ever even thinks about that!

OK, that last might be a bit radical, but we should be thinking of interesting technological and engineering solutions, not just automatically saying we need to make our lives less convenient by using less oil and using public transportation instead of private cars and all that sort of nonsense. Or even worse, by mandating all sorts of additional governmental restrictions on what we can and can’t do. That just annoyed me. This whole thing was pushing a particular political perspective. It wasn’t unbiased research or reporting into a real problem and a range of possible solutions. It was pushing a very particular agenda. At the very least they could have presented at least SOME of the arguments for other possible approaches… even if just to then argue against them. But it was all just so completely one-sided. And that just bothered me.

All in all, the kids came off as brainwashed, and the adults came off as pompous know-it-all holier-than-thou assholes.

OK, perhaps that is a bit harsh, but that is the truth about how I felt when I left this thing.

No Blood

Pretty boring dem debate. Very civil for the most part. No big sparks. Lots of stuff anybody who has been paying attention has heard dozens of times before. Big kumbaya question at the end. Wolf Blitzer sucks.

End result, I don’t think this will move the needle much at all. The question remains can Obamas momentum in closing the gap with Hillary get far enough in just a few days to keep it very close or even take a lead on Tuesday? Or will he fall short, with Clinton maintaining enough of the strong lead she has now to take a decisive lead.

Today had the potential of having a major effect on the trends in the next few days. Instead everybody played it safe and I think this ends up being a non-event.

I’ll be watching the polls closely from now until Tuesday though!