Now the R’s

OK, the Republicans are looking completely fragmented, and that is tons of fun. Here they are on the states pollster.com tracks, using as the numbers the (pretty conservative) trend line they generate using the results from all the available polls:

• IA: Huckabee leads Romney by 6.3%
• NH: Romney leads McCain by 16.2%
• NV: Giuliani leads Romney by 4.8%
• SC: Romney leads Thompson by 3.0%
• FL: Giuliani leads Romney by 15.1%
• MI: Romney leads Giuliani by 1.9%
• CA: Giuliani leads Romney by 15.6%
• NY: Giuliani leads McCain by 31.7%

Now, on the Democratic side, there were only two people who were in first place in any state, and even if you count number 2 placements, it was still just Clinton and Obama with a lock on 1st and 2nd place on all of these early/important states.

But the republican side? There are 3 different candidates who are currently polling in first place in at least one of these states. And if you add in second place there are five candidates who are polling in first or second place in these states. FIVE. And in a lot of those states the gap between first and second (and sometimes third) is VERY SMALL.

What does that mean? It means crazy dynamics in the race. At least possibly. If Iowa and New Hampshire happen, and anybody who doesn’t win there collapses, it could still be over pretty quickly. But if we have different winners in Iowa and New Hampshire, and the strength of a third candidate manages to continue despite those losses to then compete in later states, then we could still have three viable candidates getting to Super Duper Tuesday and perhaps beyond.

So here is hoping for fun and excitement in the Primary season. Giuliani seems to be in some trouble lately. I don’t want him to be president, but I’d like him to stay strong enough so that we can get Huckabee, Romney and Giuliani all winning some important states and keeping this race alive as long as possible. It would be fun to see McCain come back and win a few too, but I’m not sure he still has it in him unless the others self-destuct (which is certainly possible).