So, 18 hours since the update when we went into the 3 day bubble. The forecast has changed a bit. Wilma not spending quite as much time over the Yucatan, and speeding up a tad. Etc. The predicted path is a bit further south, but our odds of trouble have never the less increased. Here is where we are as of the 15 UTC update today:
Chances of tropical storm force winds: 45%
Chances of hurricane force winds: 8%
Probably Monday morning rather than Monday evening.
By contrast where my friend Ivan lives, it looks like this:
Chances of tropical storm force winds: 55%
Chances of hurricane force winds: 15%
Those are approximate of course.
We’ll keep watching. But we have no plans to evacuate or anything at this time. Probably not even board up, although we are thinking about it.
6 hours later and we’ve been upgraded again. As of the 21 UTC update:
Chances of tropical storm force winds: 60%
Chances of hurricane force winds: 9%